Rising trade boosts seaport operators

According to broker MBS Securities, Vietnam's seaport and shipping companies are expected to report stronger business performance in the second quarter of 2026, supported by robust growth in international trade.

Data from the General Department of Customs shows that as of June 15, Vietnam's total import-export turnover reached nearly $496.7 billion, including nearly $240 billion in exports and $256.7 billion in imports.

MBS believed that this favorable trade environment will positively support port and shipping companies, with both cargo throughput and revenue expected to increase significantly compared with the same period last year.

Among seaport operators, Ho Chi Minh City-based Gemadept Corporation (HoSE: GMD) is viewed by MBS as the standout performer. The brokerage forecast the company's parent net profit at approximately VND1.12 trillion ($42.59 million) in the second quarter of 2026, up 151% year-on-year. For the full year, the figure is expected to reach around VND2.74 trillion ($104.19 million), representing annual growth of 56%.

According to the broker, Gemadept's earnings growth is driven by three key factors. First, cargo throughput at Gemalink Port is projected to increase by around 37% year-on-year during the second quarter as the peak shipping season arrives earlier than usual.

Second, the company is expected to raise average service fees across its port network by roughly 10%. Finally, Gemadept may recognize approximately VND700 billion ($26.62 million) in other income from its share swap transaction with South Korea’s CJ Logistics.

For Hai Phong Port JSC (UPCoM: PHP), MBS forecast parent net profit of approximately VND325 billion ($12.36 million) in Q2, up 71% from a year earlier. Full-year earnings are projected to reach around VND1.24 trillion ($47.15 million), an increase of 51%.

The primary growth driver is the increasing contribution from Berths No. 3 and 4 at Lach Huyen Port in the northern city of Hai Phong. During the first five months of the year, these two berths raised their utilization rate to approximately 17.2%, handling around 232,500 TEUs, nearly 14 times the volume recorded in the same period last year.

In addition, the completed upgrades of maritime channels in front of river ports are expected to significantly improve operating efficiency at Hai Phong’s Dinh Vu and Tan Vu ports, thereby supporting revenue growth.

In contrast to the positive outlook for port operators, Hai Phong-based Hai An Transport and Stevedoring JSC (HoSE: HAH) is forecast by MBS to report Q2 net profit of approximately VND322 billion ($12.24 million), down 11% year-on-year. Its full-year figure is estimated at around VND1.24 trillion ($47.15 million), representing modest growth of 3%.

MBS attributed the weaker quarterly performance primarily to sharply higher fuel costs, which are expected to compress gross profit margins in the company's self-operated shipping business.

Nevertheless, several positive factors are expected to partly offset the impact of rising fuel prices, including the renewal of three time-charter contracts at charter rates approximately 5% higher than a year earlier, additional revenue from the HaiAn IRIS vessel, which entered operation in the fourth quarter of 2025, and higher contributions from HaiAn Green Shipping Lines.

MBS also forecast Viettel Post (UPCoM: VTP) to report second-quarter parent net profit of approximately VND46 billion ($1.75 million), down 54% year-on-year. Its full-year figure is projected at VND383 billion, a decline of 5% compared with the previous year.

According to MBS, the weaker performance reflects an estimated 34% increase in average fuel prices, while parcel delivery volumes are expected to decline as inflation weighs on consumer spending.

Significant long-term growth potential remains

According to KBSV Securities, Vietnam's seaport sector is expected to maintain positive medium- and long-term prospects, supported not only by sustainable growth in cargo throughput but also by substantial room for port service fee increases.

It noted that Vietnam's port service charges remain approximately 30-40% lower than those of neighboring countries such as Cambodia and Thailand, providing considerable scope for future price adjustments.

Furthermore, the Ministry of Construction is currently reviewing proposals to raise the regulated port service fee framework, raising expectations for stronger revenue growth and wider profit margins across the sector.

Companies operating deep-water ports or handling a higher proportion of oversized and heavy cargo are also expected to generate higher revenue per TEU and enjoy greater pricing power than conventional ports.

However, KBSV cautioned that investors should remain mindful of short-term risks related to evolving tariff policies, particularly as regulations governing cargo transshipment remain unclear.

Meanwhile, Tran Khanh Hien, director of research at MBS Securities, believed growth among seaport companies is likely to moderate after the exceptionally high base recorded in 2025. Nevertheless, Vietnam's competitive import-export cost advantages are expected to sustain a positive long-term outlook, supporting continued growth for the country's seaport operators.

Despite this optimistic outlook, she also noted that the industry will face new challenges, including intensifying competition from exporters outside the U.S. and increasing decarbonization requirements imposed by international shipping lines.