Processing seafood for export at Fimex Vietnam Company. Photo: TL

Lowest negative growth

Ms. Le Hang, Communications Director of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), said that by the first half of August, Vietnam's seafood exports reached US $ 5.3 billion, down 25% compared to the previous year. By the end of August 2023, export sales are estimated to reach nearly US$5.8 billion, nearly 25% lower than the first eight months of 2022.

According to Ms. Le Hang's analysis, since 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and inflation have cause seafood export developments to be disturbed, not following the annual rule of increasing in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter.

The same goes for 2023. Exports have not shown a clear recovery trend by the end of July. Although May peaked at US$808 million, the next two months stagnated.

Particularly, pangasius exports reached the highest level in March, then tended to decrease gradually. This trend is evident in the US and China markets - the two largest export markets of the pangasius industry.

Meanwhile, shrimp exports have not made a breakthrough. Sales in the last three months have been significantly higher than in the first months of the year. The prosperity is evident in the US market when sales increase continuously over the months. Shrimp exports to Japan and South Korea also showed signs of increasing since March but could not maintain a continuous increase.

Compared to shrimp and pangasius, exports of exploited seafood products decreased slightly, down 15% over the same period last year and maintained stable sales month by month. The largest seafood consumption markets include Japan, accounting for 28.5%. The US is 15%, Korea 11%, EU 9%. Among them, exploited seafood species are imported into Vietnam for export processing, and export processing also contributes a part to the revenue of the seafood industry. Therefore, while most businesses have experienced a decline in exports in recent times, some businesses still achieved higher sales than in the same period last year, thanks to imported raw materials to serve this type of export processing.

Lots of positive signals

According to VASEP, Vietfish International Seafood Fair 2023, taking place in Ho Chi Minh City from the end of August 2023, has attracted more than 15 thousand visitors, including many importers and foreign partners from countries, creating positive signals for seafood export enterprises.

After Vietfish 2023, we hope the quiet export situation in the year's first half will change the situation in a more positive direction. In August 2023 alone, seafood export turnover is estimated to reach US $ 846 million, 15% more than in August 2022, but is the lowest negative growth rate in the past six months, and sales are much higher than in August 2022.

Pangasius alone reached about US $167 million in August and recorded the smallest decrease in six months. By the end of August, pangasius exports totalled nearly $1.2 billion, down 34% over the same period in 2023.

The US Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Quarantine Agency (FSIS) has just completed an inspection program of some pangasius export processing enterprises to evaluate the food hygiene and safety control system for export pangasius to the US.

The positive inspection results once again affirm the reputation and quality of Vietnam's Pangasius exports, and it will be the driving force to promote Pangasius exports to the US in the coming months.

Shrimp exports in August 2023 decreased by 19% over the same period. Accumulated in the first eight months of the year, this item brought in nearly US $ 2.2 billion in foreign currency, down 28%.

Seafood exports may have a more positive trend after the EC's inspection program in October for caught seafood positive assessment results. However, from a consumption perspective, shrimp and seafood also have optimistic hopes about the recovery of the markets and other fluctuations.

After the news that Japan discharged nuclear-contaminated wastewater, Japanese consumers may be cautious about consuming domestic seafood, so that they will look for more imported seafood. Other markets are also considering importing from Japan and Japan's neighbouring countries, creating opportunities for Vietnamese seafood.

The above information and signs of economic recovery in some markets will bring hope for seafood exports in the last months of the year, with an optimistic forecast that export sales in 2023 will reach over US $ 9 billion, an 18% decrease compared to 2022.