This assessment was made by experts at Viet Dragon Securities (VDSC), based on sectoral data from companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE).

Accordingly, using a theoretical framework that links income improvement and capital formation within a policy term, the experts note that sectors showing early recovery or continued positive revenue momentum include basic resources (steel), banking, and securities. These sectors benefit from the continued push in public investment, a stable and accommodative macroeconomic backdrop, renewed corporate investment in fixed assets, and lingering stimulus effects from the previous term.

Sectors that tend to recover from the mid to later stages include food and beverage, chemicals, industrial services, and real estate, as investment, construction, and expansion demands remain resilient, while household incomes begin to improve and spending rises compared with the early stage.

Sectors concentrated mainly in the later stage are typically defensive or benefit when per capita income improves. At this point, monetary policy is no longer as accommodative as in the early phase. Examples include utilities (power and water), petroleum and gas, information technology, oil and gas, retail, insurance, and construction and building materials.

At the same time, as incomes improve and macroeconomic policies have “filtered through” the economy, purchasing power strengthens accordingly. These sectors then show clearer recovery, such as retail, food and beverage, tourism and leisure, automobiles and auto parts, and basic resources.

For export-dependent sectors and companies—such as fisheries, textiles and garments, and coated steel—performance will partly depend on exchange rates and key markets like the United States and the European Union.

However, the expert group cautions that beyond income effects and fiscal and monetary policy support, sector performance is also shaped by sector-specific factors and external influences from countries with which Viet Nam has trade ties, as well as the broader geopolitical environment and global order.

For instance, policies on credit growth limits and non-performing loan resolution have a greater impact on banking and real estate; interest-rate policies immediately affect interest-sensitive sectors such as real estate and securities; the removal of presumptive taxation affects the F&B sector; VAT cuts combined with regional minimum wage increases influence retail; Decree 100 negatively affects the beer industry; land, housing, and real estate business laws directly affect real estate and banking; accelerated public investment benefits construction and building materials; and stock market reclassification has a positive impact on the securities sector. Some of these factors do not repeat, and certain events are entirely new.

Moreover, how businesses respond to changes in government policies—or deeper structural shifts—can alter the cyclical picture and the term-based perspective.

Ultimately, investors still need to answer the question of what constitutes a company’s long-term competitive advantage, and whether it can survive and thrive under adverse conditions.

“From a broad investment perspective, investors need to continuously assess the impact of key factors affecting sectors and companies—directly and indirectly, in the short and long term—in order to identify consensus expectations and participate with a clear and consistent approach,” VDSC recommends.

In forecasting sector profits, experts believe it is relatively clear that in 2026, sectors likely to maintain profit growth include construction and building materials, retail, basic resources, information technology, banking, securities (driven by the reclassification theme and more active liquidity), and food and beverage.

Notably, in an environment where interest rates are trending upward, the insurance sector is also a compelling option, as the life insurance market gradually stabilizes and idle capital is expected to generate higher investment returns.

For the real estate sector in particular, residential segments will be more affected by higher lending rates than in previous periods. Current 18-month deposit rates at VCB and BID exceeding 13% are likely to dampen demand for land plots and high-end products. In addition, credit growth for the sector is capped at no more than the overall credit growth rate, constraining capital inflows compared with 2025. Opportunities will be limited to developers with clean land banks, well-executed projects, and strong sales.

Policy-beneficiary sectors include chemicals (rubber), driven by land conversion to industrial or infrastructure use, and upstream oil and gas (e.g., PVD, PVS); while downstream segments such as PLX will need to wait for mechanisms allowing retail prices to better track input costs and will remain dependent on oil price volatility.

Sector-specific drivers determining profit outcomes include:

• Finance & Technology: dependent on infrastructure and policy, with profits driven by credit limits, VN-Index liquidity, and AI investment waves.
• Manufacturing & Materials: Influenced by public investment; disbursement progress and FDI demand are key growth drivers.
• Consumer & Services: reliant on household purchasing power; consumer confidence, disposable income, and health-conscious trends determine revenue.

In particular, experts emphasize that inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates form a triad of critical factors affecting all sectors, while inter-sector linkages along value chains can amplify or dampen profit growth.