At the Vietnam Real Estate Forum early this month, Nguyen Hoang Hai, director general at the Ministry of Construction’s Housing and Real Estate Market Management Agency, said the market has passed its most challenging period yet.

“In general, the market still includes some difficulties, but it is getting easier to breathe month by month, quarter by quarter, particularly in Ho Chi Minh City,” Hai said.

It is hoped 2024 is the start of big things in real estate, photo: Le Toan

Specifically, in the last quarter of 2023, Masterise Homes released three projects to buyers in Ho Chi Minh City, including Grand Marina (Saigon), Lumiere Riverside, and Masteri Centre Point, while ventures like The Aurora, Privia Khang Dien, and Akari City have been put in the limelight from other developers.

According to the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), the market has become more bustling in recent months, with many projects released for sale.

“Although we cannot confirm that the market will be brilliant in 2024, there is now a foundation for the new development cycle of the Vietnamese real estate market. The residential real estate segment, especially social housing and affordable commercial housing will play a pivotal role, leading the entire market from mid-2024,” Nguyen Van Dinh, chairman of VARS said.

Dinh said that 2024 could see the real estate market overcome challenges. The market will go ahead the stable development and the overview will have positive changes.

“Although new policies have yet to take effect, there are positive signals for developers and investors to be confident, especially if the Land Law will be amended in consistence with the amended Law on Housing and Law on Real Estate Business,” Dinh said.

He added that there will be some positive signals in the market in the first half of 2024, and the recovery of real estate will be clearer in the second half.

Economist Nguyen Minh Phong said at the forum, “The government’s strong policy, along with the gradually decreasing interest rates, will enable businesses to easily access capital, and people to pay more attention to real estate investment. From then, the market will have obvious changes.”

As of end-November, credit in the economy reached about $550 billion, an increase of 9.15 per cent compared to the end of 2022. Currently, deposit and lending interest rates have decreased on average by 2-3 per cent compared to the end of 2022 and will continue to decrease in 2024.

In particular, the penetration and effectiveness of policy dismantling and improvement of the legal environment are becoming clear after numerous legal documents in 2023.

“One of the biggest problems in the market today is the legality of projects, accounting for about 70-80 per cent of all difficulties. If in 2024–2025, bottlenecks in approving projects in residential areas are resolved, the real estate market will recover,” Phong said.

The report from VARS also pointed out some macro-positive impacts on the market in 2024. Of these, loan interest rates for buying houses continue downward, and social housing continues to be the focus of development of the government. Local planning approvals, which are being considered, will be strengthened to be completed soon. Public investment will be boosted as a driving force of some key regions across the country.

The market in 2024 is also expected to be stable and welcome the resumption of about 30-40 per cent of real estate brokers. The residential real estate segment will lead the market from mid-2024 with a total apartment supply estimated at over 30,000 products, including 15,000 in Hanoi, and 5,000 in Ho Chi Minh City, and about 10,000 in Binh Duong province.