Massive capital demand

In 2026, with a GDP growth target of over 10%, Vietnam’s total social investment demand is expected to be very large, estimated at around 35-40% of GDP.

These capital flows will be directed toward strategic infrastructure projects such as the North-South Expressway, Long Thanh International Airport, ring roads, energy projects, and digital transformation initiatives.

State capital will continue to play a leading role - estimated at several quadrillion dong (VND1 quadrillion = $38.51 billion) during the 2026-2030 period - while domestic private investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) must also be further mobilized.

The requirement for development investment amounting to many quadrillion dong poses a significant challenge, but also represents a major opportunity for the private sector. Commercial banks alone cannot shoulder such enormous capital needs; instead, capital markets - especially the stock market - will assume a central role. This will be a key capital mobilization channel in Vietnam’s new growth cycle.

In addition, the Government issued Decree No. 323/2025/ND-CP dated December 18, 2025 on the establishment of an International Financial Center (IFC), aimed at providing “energy” for a new growth cycle.

This is a long-term strategic orientation designed to create a robust legal framework and open mechanisms to attract global capital flows, leading financial institutions, and high-quality human resources.

The impact of the IFC will be multi-sectoral, extending beyond the financial industry. It is expected to generate strong spillover effects across the real estate market and and infrastructure, accelerate technological growth, and enhance Vietnam’s international standing.

The emergence of the IFC, combined with massive domestic capital demand, will create a dynamic investment environment with unprecedented opportunities for the Vietnamese economy.

Experts note that while global headwinds call for caution, Vietnam’s investment story in 2026 is fundamentally driven by domestic factors. Strong domestic growth drivers and a number of unprecedented development agendas are expected to create a distinct investment landscape in Vietnam in 2026, reinforcing the country's position as one of the most attractive investment destinations in the region,

FDI attraction scenarios for 2026

Entering a new phase, the growth narrative is no longer about choosing between “FDI or domestic capital,” but rather about how FDI and domestic capital can operate together within a new structural framework.

Public investment will continue to play a pioneering role by developing infrastructure and institutions, guiding growth in tandem with the domestic private sector, which is expanding production to serve a market of 100 million people. Meanwhile, FDI will bring advanced technology, modern governance, and integration into global value chains.

These capital flows are forming a synergistic force among three critical resources of the economy in the context of digital transformation and green, sustainable growth.

In particular, stronger linkages between domestic enterprises and FDI firms will facilitate the formation of supply chains, M&A activities, industrial park development, logistics, clean energy infrastructure, and digital infrastructure.

The year 2026 marks the point at which Vietnam’s economy moves beyond the recovery phase and enters a new, more profound growth cycle. Macroeconomic fundamentals remain stable, FDI inflows continue to be positive, while domestic capital gradually regains its central role.

After nearly 40 years of Doi moi (reform), the FDI sector has contributed more than 20% of GDP, 15-18% of total development investment, approximately 25.4-28% of total state budget revenue; generated over 5.1 million jobs; and accounted for more than 70% of total foreign trade turnover and over 50% of Vietnam’s industrial output.

The FDI attraction scenario for 2026 should be based on two key foundations. First, the targets set out in Resolution No. 50 of the Politburo for the 2026-2030 period: registered FDI of approximately $200-300 billion ($40-50 billion per year); disbursed FDI of around $150-200 billion ($30-40 billion per year); a 100% increase by 2030 (compared with 2018) in the proportion of enterprises using advanced technology, modern governance, and environmentally friendly practices, moving toward high technology; and an increase in the localization rate to 40% by 2030, among other targets.

Policy solutions

To capitalize on emerging opportunities, FDI attraction efforts should be anchored on three pillars: transparent institutions, modern infrastructure, and high-quality human resources.

First, Vietnam needs to renew its growth model by promoting the application of digital technologies, artificial intelligence, blockchain, virtual reality, and the circular economy; while continuing to develop foundational industries such as metallurgy, chemicals, and precision engineering, alongside the advancement of software, high-tech products, and high-tech agriculture.

Second, human capital must be placed at the center of all development strategies. Vietnam should maximize its human potential by building policies that inspire dedication and creativity among the workforce, while investing in vocational training, foreign languages, and soft skills to meet global standards.

Third, special mechanisms should be designed to attract FDI into strategic sectors such as semiconductors, renewable energy, AI, smart logistics, and data centers. Incentive policies should be closely linked to technology transfer, higher localization rates, environmental protection, and the creation of high-quality jobs for Vietnamese workers.

Fourth, reforms in state governance thinking are required. A modern rule-of-law state must ensure fairness, transparency, and the supremacy of law, providing a solid foundation for investors to confidently implement long-term projects under streamlined and efficient administrative procedures aligned with e-government and digital government models.

All policies should aim for long-term stability, minimizing the risk of abrupt changes, thereby enhancing predictability and the overall attractiveness of Vietnam’s investment environment.