According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in the first quarter of 2025, timber and forestry product export turnover reached 4.21 billion USD. Of this, wood and wood product exports accounted for 3.95 billion USD, up 11.6% compared to the same period in 2024. The US remains the largest consumer of Vietnamese wood and wood products, representing 53.1% of total exports. Localities whose key export items are exported to the US are actively reviewing and assessing impacts while seeking solutions to support affected businesses.

Binh Dinh Province is home to more than 300 wood-processing enterprises, with major export products consisting of indoor and outdoor furniture, wood pellets, and woodchips. In 2024, wood exports to the US brought in 604 million USD, accounting for 34.5% of the province’s total import-export turnover. Following the news of potential reciprocal duties, some US-based customers have requested to renegotiate existing orders and temporarily suspended the signing of new contracts.

Similarly, Bac Kan Province has 22 export enterprises. Two of these exports directly to the US: Govina Investment Joint Stock Company (plywood) and Lechenwood Viet Nam Co., Ltd. (plywood and flooring), with the US market accounting for 54.7% of their total output.

A report assessing the impact on Bac Kan’s export businesses to the US indicates that if a 46% reciprocal duty were applied, it would have a direct effect not only on those companies exporting to the US, but also on businesses involved in the export supply chain.

Immediately after the news of reciprocal duties, some export orders from two Vietnamese companies to the US were either suspended or cancelled. Notably, Lechenwood Viet Nam Co., Ltd. had 100% of its wood flooring export orders cancelled. The industrial growth rate in Bac Kan is forecast to fall by around 1–2% in 2025, with wood export revenue to decline by 8–10 million USD. Some companies may be forced to reduce their workforce, which could affect local social welfare.

According to Dinh Lam Sang, Deputy Director of the Bac Kan Department of Industry and Trade, the 90-day suspension of tariff imposition by the US provides opportunities for businesses to have more time to adjust their operations and prepare response measures. It is also a valuable opportunity to lay the groundwork for negotiating long-term trade agreements and seeking to diversify export markets.

However, some businesses have expressed concerns over the difficulty of market redirection. Each export product line is backed by its own production system, and shifting to new markets involves more than just trade promotion or finding new orders—it also requires significant financial investment to invest in production lines.

Tran Quoc Bao, from Thien Loc Import-Export Company, remarked that while switching markets is a sound strategy, it is not easily executed. The US currently accounts for nearly 70% of Viet Nam’s total wood export value, while other markets represent a much smaller proportion. Only about 10% of businesses are capable of shifting alternative markets. “A 10% tax rate is bearable if both sides share the risk equally, but any higher rate could force factories to shut down. We may have to consider switching production to serve domestic consumption, in order to maintain stable livelihoods for over 100 workers,” Bao explained.

Several localities are currently implementing plans to work with export companies on solutions to boost trade promotion and expand market access to the EU, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Southeast Asia. At the same time, they are helping businesses access capital to maintain production and expand domestic sales. Many have proposed that the Government and relevant ministries adopt both immediate and long-term comprehensive measures to support businesses with legal procedures, trade defence investigation dossiers in English (as required by the US), and strengthen support for provincial enterprises in promoting exports to alternative markets.

Ngo Sy Hoai, Vice Chairman and Secretary-General of the Viet Nam Timber and Forest Products Association, noted that Vietnamese exports to Japan have traditionally consisted of wood chips and some types of boards. Given the current pressure from the US market, Vietnamese wood enterprises should now explore the potential to export indoor furniture suitable to Japanese consumer preferences. As for China, with its population of 1.4 billion, Viet Nam’s exports have mostly focused on wood chips for paper production. However, if we worked hard to exploit them, we could still find outlets for certain products.

The Republic of Korea offers logistical advantages, with relatively short sea transport distances and strong trade relations. Yet, Vietnamese companies have so far mostly supplied low-cost wood pellets and plywood to this market.

Even the EU, with 27 member states and covered by the EVFTA, wood products export accounts for only 3.8–4% of Viet Nam’s total wood export turnover. Some other markets — such as Russia, the Middle East and countries within ASEAN — also need to be studied, opened up, and activated. These markets still hold untapped potential that Vietnamese wood exporters must seize to compensate for the substantial gap that may arise from US tariff policies.

In addition, wood and forest product exporters must prepare full legal documentation to prove the lawful origin of their timber materials. If duties are imposed due to suspicion of tax evasion, it is essential to maintain transparency in the production process and raw materials. At the same time, businesses should research to change the structure of raw materials, production structure, shift to using domestic plantation wood materials and minimise dependence on raw materials and semi-finished products from abroad.