Harvesting rice in Vinh Thanh District, Can Tho City. (Photo: HA ANH)

However, compared to before India lifted the ban on exporting regular white rice (non-basmati), the export price of rice from most countries has decreased by 38-50 USD per tonne. To maintain rice export prices in the coming period, Vietnam's rice sector needs to proactively plan appropriate production and consumption strategies.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in the first 10 months of the year, Vietnam exported nearly 7.8 million tonnes of rice, with a value of 4.86 billion USD, a 10.2% increase in volume and a 23.4% increase in value compared to the same period in 2023. The average export price of rice for the first 10 months is estimated at 626.2 USD per tonne, up 12% compared to the same period in 2023. With this result, the rice export value for the first 10 months has already surpassed the total for all of 2023 and is expected to exceed 5 billion USD by the end of 2024.

The Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia remain Vietnam’s largest rice export markets. According to Phung Van Thanh, Trade Counselor at the Vietnamese Trade Office in the Philippines, Vietnam is maintaining its position as the leading rice exporter to the Philippines. By the end of October 2024, the Philippines imported 2.91 million tonnes of rice from Vietnam, accounting for more than 79% of the country's total rice imports of 3.68 million tonnes. It is forecasted that 2024 rice exports from Vietnam to the Philippines will reach over 3.5 million tonnes. To promote rice trade between the two countries, on November 5, the VFA hosted the 2024 Rice Trade Promotion and Customer Appreciation Conference in Manila, Philippines, with more than 20 Vietnamese rice exporters displaying, promoting, and introducing their rice products to over 70 interested Philippine businesses.

Many rice exporters believe that from the beginning of 2024, Vietnam's rice exports have been relatively favourable, benefiting from supply factors as India has not yet lifted its ban on exporting non-basmati white rice. However, since October, India has taken steps to loosen its export restrictions, officially lifting the ban on non-basmati rice exports at the end of September, with an export floor price of 490 USD per tonne. By the end of October, India again announced amendments to its rice export policy, removing the minimum export price of 490 USD per tonne. Subsequently, rice export prices from other countries dropped sharply. This has raised concerns among many rice-exporting countries, including Vietnam.

The Asia-Africa Market Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade stated that Africa is an important rice export market for Vietnam. In the context of a growing population, an increasing number of Asian tourists, and more labour forces moving to the continent, the demand for rice consumption in Africa is rising. Additionally, amidst the intensifying competition in the global rice market and increased supply, Africa—where many food security issues exist, and local production does not meet consumption demand—has become a potential rice export market for Vietnam, both recently and in the coming years.

In addition to the price competition with Indian rice, the increase in global rice supply is also one of the factors contributing to the decline in rice export prices. The VFA reported that the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) forecasts that global rice production for the 2024-2025 season will reach 539.2 million tonnes, up from the previous 536.9 million tonnes. The global rice reserves for the 2024-2025 season are expected to reach a record 206.9 million tonnes, up from the forecast of 204.8 million tonnes and 199 million tonnes in the 2023-2024 season.

In light of this, Vietnam's rice industry needs to devise suitable production and business strategies for the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025. For export markets, the focus should remain on key markets such as the Philippines and Indonesia, as these countries' demand for rice imports continues to rise. According to the Vietnam Trade Office in the Philippines, the total rice import volume of the Philippines is expected to exceed 4 million tonnes in 2024, potentially reaching 4.5 million tonnes, significantly higher than the 3.61 million tonnes in 2023. Vietnamese rice traders need to understand the rice consumption patterns of the Philippine population across various segments to develop rice cultivation regions and produce rice products that meet the specific needs, characteristics, and requirements of the Philippine market, with stable quality, appropriate pricing, and guaranteed long-term supply.

On the other hand, businesses also plan to boost exports to other potential markets, such as the European Union, China, and countries in the Middle East. Recently, the Vietnam-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was signed, which will create significant opportunities for Vietnamese agricultural products, particularly rice, to enter the markets of the United Arab Emirates, Middle Eastern countries, and other regions in Western Asia and Africa.

Regarding production, according to the Deputy Director of the Crop Production Department, Le Thanh Tung, localities will continue to focus on producing high-quality rice varieties that are popular in the market and command higher prices, such as fragrant rice and speciality rice. In particular, efforts will be concentrated on implementing the project "Sustainable Development of One Million Hectares of High-Quality and Low-Emission Rice Cultivation Linked to Green Growth in the Mekong Delta by 2030". This aims to position Vietnam as one of the leading countries in producing high-quality, low-emission rice. This initiative aligns with the new consumer trends of many countries worldwide and will further increase the added value of Vietnamese rice.