Vietnam–U.S. trade negotiations are progressing positively, according to Mr. Tran Hoang Son, Chief Market Strategist at VPBank Securities JSC (VPBankS). However, he noted several critical points.

Firstly, according to 2024 data, Vietnam is among the top four countries/regions with the largest trade deficits with the U.S., with a deficit of USD 122 billion. Excluding the Eurozone, Vietnam ranks third in countries with the highest U.S. trade deficits.

U.S. lawmakers have recently debated whether Vietnam is redirecting Chinese goods to the U.S., which doesn’t accurately reflect Vietnam's trade practices. Still, being among the top three in trade deficits with the U.S. makes Vietnam a focal point, complicating negotiations.

Secondly, in recent negotiation rounds, Vietnam and the U.S. have committed to accelerating talks with a constructive, sustainable, and balanced trade approach. Vietnam has pledged to import aircraft, fuel, LNG, agricultural products, and energy, while the U.S. seeks to reduce Vietnam's imports of raw materials from China, laying out a clear roadmap.

In March–April 2025, Vietnam signed agreements worth USD 90 billion to help reduce the U.S. trade deficit. Starting in 2025, about USD 50 billion will go toward purchasing aircraft, aviation services, oil and gas, and petrochemical products. Just last week, Vietnam committed to importing an additional USD 3 billion in U.S. agricultural products, including grains, animal feed, meat (USD 1.1 billion), and timber. Twenty memorandums of understanding were signed with various U.S. states, such as Iowa (USD 800 million), Ohio (USD 600 million), Maryland (USD 300 million), and Washington DC (USD 1.1 billion).

"With these large-scale, clearly quantified commitments, I believe the tariffs Vietnam expects could be significantly reduced. The current rate of 46% may be lowered substantially. If, after negotiations, Vietnam's tariff rates are lower than China's, Vietnamese goods will retain their competitive edge, and FDI inflows will continue," Mr. Son commented.

In this context, sectors such as textiles, seafood, and rubber are under investor scrutiny, especially as former President Donald Trump expresses intent to bring heavy industries and high-tech manufacturing back to the U.S. Mr. Son shared that Trump has emphasized high-tech sectors like missile, aircraft, and submarine manufacturing, semiconductors, AI, and software—industries representing the U.S. economy. He also stated that the U.S. will not focus on producing basic consumer goods like textiles and footwear.

Based on this approach, tariffs on textiles and footwear could be lower. Heavy taxation on such products would hurt U.S. consumers and contribute to inflation. Trump has been urging the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates immediately, but rising inflation could prompt the Fed to act more cautiously.

Thus, if Trump avoids targeting products where the U.S. lacks a competitive edge, related tariffs may remain low. This would benefit textile and footwear stocks, according to Mr. Son.

However, due to ongoing uncertainties and lack of clarity in trade negotiations, companies in textiles, seafood, and footwear still face information risks. When information is unclear, stock prices tend to fluctuate significantly. Only when information is concrete can investors confidently buy at deep discounts.

In the medium to long term, Vietnam maintains cost and labor advantages in textile and footwear production. Major brands such as Nike and Decathlon continue to place orders and maintain manufacturing operations in Vietnam. Therefore, with lower expected tariffs, the medium-term outlook for these stocks is relatively stable. In the short term, however, investors must remain cautious amid information noise, said the VPBankS representative.

Regarding seafood, the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) has imposed anti-dumping tariffs on frozen shrimp at a rate of 35.29%. Mr. Son said this will significantly impact Vietnamese shrimp producers, processors, and exporters. Such high tariffs will quickly lead to a decline in export orders due to lost competitiveness, raising production costs and reducing output.

Major exporters like FMC and MPC would be heavily affected in the short term if these tariffs take effect. Long term, investors should prepare for similar trade defense actions by the U.S., including anti-dumping investigations into products like shrimp and steel.

For the shrimp industry specifically, Vietnam must diversify its markets to reduce dependence on the U.S., and develop higher value-added products for multiple markets including the U.S., China, Southeast Asia, and domestic demand. Vietnam must also respond to U.S. tax policies and request a review to ensure fair and transparent trade.

Livestock Sector: Indirect Effects and Opportunities

One notable sector indirectly impacted by tariff policies is livestock. Changes in commodity prices and imported animal feed are influenced by trade developments. Moreover, recent controversies over food safety involving pork and chicken at C.P. Vietnam have triggered market reactions. Experts see this as an opportunity for listed livestock companies like DBC, MML, and BAF, or firms with livestock operations such as HAG, HNG, and HPG.

VCBS noted that as Vietnam seeks ways to reduce U.S. countervailing tariffs, importing agricultural inputs like soybeans, soybean meal, corn, and breeding pigs from the U.S. will help balance the trade deficit and reduce input costs, especially if preferential tariffs apply.

Mr. Son added: In Vietnam, pork production is dominated by large enterprises. Small household farms lack veterinary expertise and have been affected by disease outbreaks, leading to a decline in household farming.

C.P. Vietnam is the dominant player in pork production, with 6.8 million pigs in 2023 (Vietdata). BAF ranks second with 1 million, followed by Thaco Agri with 665,200, HAG with 600,000, HPG with 352,000, and Masan Meatlife with 250,000.

“With such large volumes, any consumer backlash against C.P. could hit its revenue and reduce its market share. However, the production gap is so large that even if C.P. loses ground, other domestic firms can't immediately scale up to fill the void,” Mr. Son observed.

He emphasized the need for strong government intervention to ensure product quality and strict oversight of corporate practices. This is crucial to maintaining economic stability, as a drop in pork supply would affect national growth.

In fact, livestock-related stocks have surged since C.P.’s scandal broke in early June. From a consumer standpoint, companies with strong quality controls, transparent communication, and excellent customer service are well-positioned to capture market share. Combined with lower input costs and higher pork prices due to tighter supply, this can boost profit margins. Positive earnings from companies like MML and DBC further enhance the appeal of this sector, offering investors solid grounds for consideration.