In the early hours of Wednesday (Vietnam time), FTSE Russell released its semi-annual equity market classification review, announcing that Vietnam’s stock market status will be upgraded from frontier secondary emerging, effective September 21, 2026, subject to an interim review in March 2026.

This upgrade acknowledges Vietnam’s over 10-year journey of market reforms and opens the door to a new era for its capital markets.

Strong capital inflows expected after upgrade

Experts unanimously agree this is a highly positive development for Vietnam’s stock market. According to Maybank Investment Bank, the upgrade will help attract billions of USD in foreign capital from ETFs and global institutional investors.

These inflows will boost market liquidity, expand market size, and deepen market depth. It will also lead to better company valuations due to increased investor confidence and market appeal.

Moreover, the upgrade will accelerate institutional reforms, improve trading mechanisms, and enhance transparency, reinforcing Vietnam’s position on the regional and global financial map.

Mechanically, the upgrade means Vietnam will be included in key indexes like FTSE All-World, FTSE Emerging Markets (EM), and FTSE Asia. This forces passive funds tracking these indexes to purchase Vietnamese equities and ETFs. The upgrade itself creates automatic buying pressure from passive capital. Simultaneously, active funds are expected to show strong interest.

Vietnam is estimated to attract $700 million to $1.1 billion from FTSE-tracking ETFs, depending on Vietnam’s weight in these indexes.

Maybank estimates that the main beneficiaries will be VIC and VHM, which could draw in nearly $400 million.

Thanks to increased market capitalization and relaxed foreign ownership limits (FOL), the number of eligible Vietnamese stocks for FTSE Emerging Market indexes has risen from six to nine. For example, FPT now qualifies after raising its FOL, while LPB of LPBank and STB of Sacombank qualified due to increased market cap.

There’s also a list of 15 potential stocks that lack just one criterion. Those not meeting market cap requirement (minimum VND95 trillion or $3.6 billion) include SSI of Saigon Securities, BSR of Refining and Petrochemical Company Limited, VJC of Vietjet Air, and SHB of Saigon-Hanoi Bank.

Tickers with problems that can be resolved soon comprise HVN of national flag carrier Vietnam Airlines (restricted due to delayed 2022 financial reports) and VPL of Vinpearl (insufficient 12-month liquidity and under 50% of requirement). These companies could resolve their issues in the short term.

The group with the most challenges relates to FOL and free float includes seven major banks and one retail stocks such as CTG of VietinBank, TCB of Techcombank, VPB of VPBank, MBB of MBBank, ACB of Asian Commercial Bank, MWG of Mobile World, and HDB of HDBank (low FOL); BID of BIDV bank and GVR of Vietnam Rubber Group (free float under 5%)

According to broker VPBankS, both passive and active inflows could total $3-7 billion after the upgrade becomes effective. Eliminating the pre-funding requirement is expected to encourage institutional participation, potentially increasing daily market trading value to $2-3 billion, enhancing market liquidity and stability, and reducing volatility.

Larger capital inflows will also support more IPOs, new listings, and capital market expansion. Vietnam’s stock market will become a more effective capital mobilization channel, contributing to the GDP growth target of over 8% in 2025 and double digits from 2026-2030.

This is a powerful catalyst for businesses to improve operational standards and corporate governance.

VPBankS identifies 15 stocks likely to benefit, including VIC, VHM, HPG of steel giant Hoa Phat, FPT, MSN of Masan Group, VCB of Vietcombank, VNM of Vinamilk, Saigon Securities (SSI), VRE of Vincom Retail, VCI of Viet Capital Securities, VIX of VIX Securities, and VND of VNDirect Securities.

Meanwhile, SSI emphasizes stocks that benefit not only from the upgrade story but also from sector leadership and high growth potential: VIC, VHM, HPG, MSN, VNM, VIX, VCB, SSI, STB of Sacombank, and VRE.

Among them, VIC and VHM are expected to receive the largest inflows, with an estimated $415 million and $196 million, respectively.

Other notable beneficiaries include MSN, VNM, HPG, VCB, SSI – each projected to attract over $40 million.

The stock market is forward-looking, and prices may rise ahead of actual capital inflows. Pham Luu Hung, chief economist at SSI, advises investors to focus on leading companies with strong business outlooks, as foreign inflows may still be one year away.