30 major export markets

In the first month of 2025, the average export price of pepper reached US$6,755 per tonne, up 68 percent from January 2024. In January 2025, Vietnam exported pepper to 30 major markets. The US topped the list with the value reaching US$21.7 million, an 8.4 percent increase from January 2024.

Germany ranked second, with US$9.36 million, marking a 112 percent increase from US$4.41 million in January 2024; India followed with US$6.98 million, up 23.7 percent. Vietnam also earned US$4.24 million from pepper exports to the UK, an increase of 112 percent from January 2024; exports to the Republic of Korea reached US$3.43 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.5 percent.

Vietnam exported 12,958 tonnes of pepper in January 2025

The value of pepper exports to these five markets reached US$45.7 million, accounting for 52 percent of the total export value of Vietnamese pepper. Vietnam also exported pepper to the Netherlands, earning US$3.25 million, a 16.6 percent decrease compared to January 2024; to Pakistan US$2.6 million, up 82 percent; to Spain US$2.08 million, up 84 percent; to Russia US$1.6 million, up 59 percent; and to Japan US$1.49 million, up 22 percent.

Other high-growth export markets included the Ukraine, with the export value reaching US$0.16 million, a sharp increase of 77 percent from January 2024; Australia with US$1.16 million, up 63 percent; Kazakhstan with US$0.22 million, surging 340 percent; and Belgium with US$0.51 million, up 64 percent.

In January 2025, Vietnam also exported pepper to the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore. Specifically, exports to the Philippines reached US$2.58 million, down 3.3 percent year-on-year; Thailand with US$2.19 million, up 2.8 percent; Malaysia with US$1.17 million, up 116 percent; and Singapore with US$0.2 million, equivalent to January 2024’s level.

Global supply declines, prices continue to rise

The International Pepper Community (IPC) forecast global pepper production in 2025 would continue declining, especially in Vietnam and Brazil - the world’s two largest pepper exporters. With global production estimated to decrease by about four percent, or 22,000 tonnes, IPC predicted that the decline could push global pepper prices higher this year.

In the international market, pepper prices are significantly affected by supply reductions in major producing countries, such as Vietnam, Brazil, and Indonesia.

In January 2025, Brazil exported 4,339 tonnes of pepper worth US$27.1 million, a 28.1 percent decrease in volume and a 36.9 percent increase in value compared to January 2024.

Similarly, Vietnam’s pepper exports dropped by 25.9 in volume, reaching nearly 13,000 tonnes. However, the export value increased by 25.1 percent, reaching US$87 million, thanks to the 68 percent year-on-year surge in price to an average of US$6,755 per tonne.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in 2024, Vietnam’s total pepper cultivation area was about 113,000 hectares, with an estimated output of 190,000 tonnes. The peak cultivation area was in 2017, reaching approximately 151,900 hectares.

It is expected that Vietnam’s pepper cultivation area may decrease to about 110,000 hectares in the near future. Primary reasons include weather impacts, pest issues, and rising prices of other farm produce, such as durian and coffee.

Explaining this trend, Hoang Thi Lien, President of the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), said that Vietnam’s pepper industry is transitioning from expansion in cultivation area to improving quality, enhancing deep processing, and diversifying products and export markets to penetrate deeper into the global supply chain.

Regarding export prospects, Ho Tri Nhuan, Director of Gohan Co., Ltd., believes that 2025 presents favorable conditions for pepper exports. Reduced production in some regions is expected to help maintain high pepper prices.

However, depending on the purchasing trends from key markets, such as the US and China, price fluctuations could be either significant or limited to 10-15 percent compared to current levels.

Therefore, businesses need to closely monitor market developments and purchasing trends from partners to plan procurement, storage, and financial strategies appropriately. This will help maximize the export volume and value while ensuring business efficiency.