People shop at the Coopmart supermarket system. (Photo: KHANH AN)

In its April 2025 East Asia-Pacific Economic Update, the WB lowered its 2025 global growth forecast from 5% (as projected in March) to 4%. Although Viet Nam’s expected growth remains higher than many countries in the region, it too was revised down from 6.8% to 5.8%.

Strengthening traditional growth drivers

Amid rising global complexities, especially widespread trade tensions, Viet Nam remains committed to its growth target of 8% in 2025 to lay the foundation for double-digit growth from 2026–2030.

In Directive No. 47/CD-TTg, the Prime Minister emphasised the priority of promoting economic growth alongside maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and ensuring major economic balances. To achieve these goals, ministries and localities are urged to renew and reinforce traditional growth drivers and strive for 100% disbursement of public investment capital.

This is a significant challenge, as the 95% disbursement target has never been met, and this year’s public investment budget reaches 875 trillion VND, higher than in previous years. Furthermore, ongoing organisational restructuring may impact disbursement efficiency in 2025.

Associate Professor Dr Pham The Anh (National Economics University) noted that exports may weaken due to US tariff policies, while consumption is limited by stagnant incomes. In this context, public investment will be key to growth, with progress hinging on execution capacity at the ministerial and local levels.

Removing legal bottlenecks to accelerate project implementation will help drive growth. However, boosting investment efficiency and avoiding overuse of monetary policy is crucial to preventing inflationary risks.

Eliminating institutional bottlenecks

In its 2024 annual economic report, the National Economics University emphasised that for Viet Nam to become a prosperous nation by 2045 amid rapid global changes, it must sustain high growth rates while ensuring macroeconomic stability.

“In the short term, the Government is compelled to rapidly boost aggregate demand to meet growth targets. However, this demand stimulus in 2025 should primarily rely on fiscal policy rather than monetary policy to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability,” stated Professor Dr To Trung Thanh, Head of the Department of Scientific Management at the National Economics University.

Alongside traditional growth drivers, new engines, such as private sector development, the digital economy, green transition, and circular economy, must be promoted. The private sector should be the primary engine of growth, supported by policies that remove barriers to business operations and facilitate market entry and expansion.

It’s essential to resolve institutional barriers, improve the investment climate, uphold property rights, and protect investors. Dr Pham The Anh stressed that though the private sector may not thrive immediately post-COVID-19, 2025 is the time to create a stable business environment that lasts across political terms, avoiding constant policy changes that deter long-term investment.

Dr Dang Duc Anh, Deputy Director of the Institute for Policy and Strategy, asserted that institutional reform is the "key" to resolving core structural bottlenecks. He emphasised the need for legislative reform to remove constraints on both supply and demand, helping businesses recover and grow.

He also proposed consolidating investment and business-related laws, as done previously with the Enterprise Law and Investment Law, and accelerating the issuance of guiding regulations to ensure new laws are effectively implemented.

Regarding business environment reform, Dr Duc Anh recommended establishing a powerful steering committee led by the Prime Minister to drive implementation, rather than relying on individual ministries as in the past.

Promoting growth is now a top priority in Viet Nam’s 2021–2025 socio-economic strategy amid growing global instability. Despite global headwinds, Viet Nam remains steadfast in its goals and proactive in implementing recovery and acceleration strategies, especially in the post-pandemic period.