Short-term measures

According to the National Load Dispatch Center (A0), on June 10, the unit addressed difficulties with three thermal power facilities, Quang Ninh, Nghi Son 1, and Thai Binh 2, adding 1,000 MW of energy capacity to the northern area.

The warning level remains high, however, because the El Nino phenomenon continues to represent a substantial concern, causing water levels in hydropower reservoirs to fall below the dead storage level and thermal power plants to encounter continual overloading problems. Power outages in various northern provinces and cities have recently lasted not just for 2-3 hours, but also for half a day, a full day, or even all night. There is even inadequate energy to sustain production in several areas, including Bac Giang, Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, and Hai Phong.

Representatives of several industrial companies have said that, despite the increase in energy supplies, citizens should continue to use electricity cautiously in light of the forthcoming forecast of extreme heatwaves. Simultaneously, the Ministry of Industry and Trade must adopt long-term steps to provide reliable energy supply in the northern area and limit  power outages in order to fulfill corporate production demands.

Experts and companies are asking, "What solutions can guarantee electricity supply for the northern region?" in order to identify the causes and suggest answers.

Mr. Nguyen Quoc Trung, Deputy Director of the National Load Dispatch Center (A0), stated that the entire system capacity is 29,500 MW, with hydropower accounting for 9,700 MW and minor hydropower plants accounting for 3,300 MW. As a result, the real mobilization capacity in the northern area is just around 16,000 MW, despite the fact that peak demand during heatwaves might approach 19,000 MW. Extreme weather and a decline in electricity output from hydroelectric and thermal power plants have had an impact this year, necessitating numerous measures to handle the problem.

"Transmission of electricity from the central and southern regions to the northern region is one of the solutions under consideration." Transmission capacity on electricity lines is typically 2,400 MW, however it has been risen to 2,500 MW. However, this provides somewhat tough operational issues for the electricity system," Mr. Trung explained.

According to economist Nguyen Dinh Cung, the northern area has witnessed tremendous economic expansion over the last ten years, resulting in an increased demand for power without any extra sources of supply.

"The power outage is the result of extended heatwaves and drought, but it was not unexpected." We are compelled to use short-term tactics in the current circumstances since there are no fresh sources and no backup supplies. While there is extra power in the middle and southern areas, transmission capacity limit ations make it impossible to transport it to the northern region," Mr. Cung observed.

The second alternative is to promote projects that have already been approved for investment, such as many of the projects in Power Development Plan 7 and Power Development Plan 7 Revised. However, owing to policy inadequacies, this vision has not been completely fulfilled. According to this economist, Vietnam's competent authorities have not taken effective action.

Furthermore, the fundamental reason is a forecasting problem. According to Mr. Cung, despite knowing in advance that there will be a power constraint for socioeconomic growth in 2023, we did not take action.

"When we see the risk of shortages in a market economy, we must turn it into an investment opportunity, a business opportunity, a development opportunity, rather than a bottleneck that restricts development." As a result, we must alter our policymaking approach, implement flexible policy operations, and solve the issue through market mechanisms. We require action... Even though it is tough for private firms to execute, they do it swiftly..." highlighted Mr. Tran Dinh Cung.

Finding long-term solutions

Mr. Vo Quang Lam, Deputy General Director of EVN, noted that our power system is quite powerful, however it is mostly based on renewable energy concentrated in the South and Central areas. As a result, the distribution of power capacity is unequal, generating transmission system challenges.

Vietnam owns and runs Southeast Asia's biggest transmission system. We already have two 500kV transmission lines, circuits 1 and 2, with the North-South transmission grid, and we have built circuit 3 from Vung Ang (Ha Tinh) to the south. Furthermore, Power Development proposal 8's preliminary concept outlines the proposal to build a 500kV circuit 3 from Ha Tinh to the Northern area, linking to Hung Yen to form a closed loop circuit. The implementation period lasts until 2030.

However, Vietnamese experts believe that financing is required to invest in the construction and improvement of the transmission infrastructure. Furthermore, laws and guidelines must be adopted to implement and legitimate the socialization of transmission line investment, as well as to use international organization assistance resources to construct a smart grid system in accordance with the objectives of Power Development Plan 8.

Given the current circumstances, expert Phan Cong Tien noted that in order to secure long-term energy security, Vietnam must give recommendations for constructing rooftop solar systems with a self-consumption model to supplement electricity for the Northern region's rising demand. Encourage investment in the use of renewable energy to satisfy business and production demands, contribute to energy security, and reduce reliance on fossil fuels for power generation.

The VIETSE research policy group suggests flexible power system operation to tap into renewable energy sources in the Northern area, with the goal of increasing the share of renewable energy output (including hydropower) to 30-39% of total commercial electricity production. Assessing energy storage requirements and projecting power generating business pricing will be critical indicators in this respect.

To do so, Vietnam must deploy all of its flexible resources, including increasing or decreasing the operation of existing power plants, determining demand, the grid, and storage. As a result, the study team recommends deploying 2000 MW of energy storage devices in the Northern region to alleviate the impact of power outages. Furthermore, the remaining energy storage systems will be installed in areas with a high concentration of renewable energy sources, notably 1000 MW in the North Central region and 1500 MW in the Central Highlands.