During the 43^rd ASEAN Summit (from September 5 to 7, 2023), ASEAN announced an important document, which is the Declaration of ASEAN Concord IV. This is an initiative of Indonesia’s Chairmanship of ASEAN in 2023, serving as the foundation for the ASEAN Community Vision to 2045, strengthening ASEAN to address various future challenges. This is the first time ASEAN has had a long-term strategic vision. Despite facing great future obstacles, ASEAN still needs to closely follow the core spirit of “taking people as the center, goals, and driving forces” of the building process of the ASEAN Community by 2045.

Declaration of ASEAN Concord IV is among key achievements of the 43rd ASEAN Summit in Jakarta, Indonesia. (Photo: Anh Son)

Efforts to shape the future

Since the establishment of ASEAN, the Bangkok Declaration has affirmed that the bloc’s main goals are “enhancing regional peace and stability through respect for justice and the rule of law” and “promoting economic growth, social progress, and cultural development in the region through joint efforts”. Whether ASEAN can achieve these goals depends on the bloc's awareness and action capacity. In the context of increasingly fierce competition between superpowers today, being prepared to deal with unexpected consequences will be a top priority for ASEAN leaders. ASEAN is still a “half-full” cup, not a “hard-empty” one, which is the first idea that the High-level Task Force on ASEAN Community’s Post-2025 Vision is trying to implement.

ASEAN has experienced a long journey in shaping its future. Before the ASEAN leaders’ agreement to build a task force preparing for the Post-2025 Vision, there was the ASEAN Vision 2020, launched in 1997 with the goal of creating ASEAN as “A harmonious bloc of Southeast Asian nations, outward-looking, living in peace, stability, and prosperity, bound together in a dynamic development partnership and a caring social community”.

Over the past 23 years, the bloc has achieved three vital milestones. In 2003, the Bali II Agreement established the ASEAN Community with three cooperation areas, including politics and security, economy, and socio-culture. To go further, in 2007, the bloc agreed on the legal and institutional framework, leading to the implementation of the ASEAN Charter since December 2008. In 2015, ASEAN leaders recognized that the ASEAN Community needed to be “politically cohesive, economically integrated and socially responsible” to cope with future challenges and opportunities. With the bloc’s growing international influence, ASEAN’s Vision by 2025 is to promote the bloc’s central role to ensure the maintenance of a peaceful, stable, vibrant, and sustainable community.

More important and resilient

The inquiry revolves around the future trajectory of ASEAN by 2045. In 2022, the High-level Task Force on ASEAN Community’s Post-2025 Vision was established, with a mandate to formulate the vision by December 2025. The HLTF-ACV, consisting of 20 members (two from each member country), is tasked with specific responsibilities to develop the ASEAN Community’s Post-2025 Vision.

The 7^th meeting of the ASEAN Community’s Post-2025 Vision discussed important future trends of the community in the next 20 years, including geopolitics, food security, energy crises, digital transformation, artificial intelligence, and pandemics. Accordingly, ASEAN’s vision will extend to another 10 years from 2035 to 2045. ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn announced the 20-year vision in Bangkok in March 2023 and this decision was made by HLTF-ACV at its 7^th meeting in Belitung, Indonesia, from March 19 to 20, 2023.

This marks the first time the 56-year-old organization has offered an unusual long-term vision at a critical time of global geopolitical and geo-economic turmoil. ASEAN countries have emphasized that 2045 will be a new time to find ways to make ASEAN more important and resilient. Between now and 2025, the task force on ASEAN Community's vision beyond 2025 will have to find answers on how to develop a vision that not only ensures ASEAN’s role in the geopolitical landscape in the next 20 years but also ensures its domestic and international resilience at a time whether this bloc is ready to become the world’s fourth largest economic power after China, the US, Japan, or India or not?

The ASEAN Vision 2045 may include new intergenerational challenges that different generations will have to continuously address within the ASEAN community. (Photo: ERIA)

Long way to go

However, lots of work needs to be done to ensure the ASEAN Community’s Post-2025 Vision is consistent with 672 ASEAN citizens’ mutual aspirations. A mid-term review of the first 10-year vision will be available in 2035. The Task Force submitted a list of core elements of the Post-2025 Vision to ASEAN leaders and over the next three years, the ASEAN Community Vision to 2045 will be fulfilled. The leaders also recommended that the drafters need to balance pragmatism and ambition for the bloc to stabilize, make progress, and maintain its real identity.

Megatrends mentioned by the High-Level Task Force on ASEAN Community's Post-2025 Vision include knock-on effects of geopolitical changes, energy crises and food security, artificial intelligence, digital transformation and cybersecurity. Additionally, the world will continue to face challenges caused by pandemics and natural disasters. The ASEAN Community Vision to 2045 may include new intergenerational challenges that different generations will have to continuously address within the ASEAN community.

To be in line with a more polarized future world, the bloc must act together and strengthen its centrality to maintain its key global role. Until now, several keywords have emerged from the ASEAN Vision’s draft, which will encompass ASEAN’s priorities – ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific, major rivalry in Indo-Pacific, digital disruption, and artificial intelligence.

* Institute for Southeast Asian Studies

** People's Security Academy