The capital has put forward three scenarios relating to the management of socio-economic development as a means of responding to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic during an online conference held on April 22 under the chair of Vuong Dinh Hue, politburo member and secretary of the Hanoi Party Committee.

The discussions primarily focused on the outcomes of the nation’s socio-economic performance, the key tasks ahead for the remaining months of 2020, and a range of measures aimed at softening the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Nguyen Van Suu, Vice Chairman of the Hanoi People's Committee, stated that despite the epidemic having a negative impact on the economy, Hanoi has been able to successfully maintain growth momentum for socio-economic development during the first quarter. Despite this positive, the majority of targets came in lower than expected in comparison to the same period last year.

In addition to discussing these figures, municipal leaders pointed out a range of difficulties and discussed various directions and tasks which can be done when attempt to achieve targets during the remainder of the year.

A significant factor in devising strategies is the fact that the COVID-19 epidemic has had a comprehensive impact on economic, cultural, and social targets set out by the capital, as well as affecting security and order, participants noted.

This can be seen as economic growth targets have been recorded lower than they were during the corresponding period last year, creating great pressure to fulfill current socio-economic development targets. This is proving hugely challenging due to the number of enterprises halting operations surging by 36%, whilst the number of unemployed workers who applied for unemployment insurance has grown by 22.2% over the same period.

The price index has tended to rise higher than it did during the same period from last year, especially with regard to the food group, whilst the slow-paced construction progress of some projects has served to negatively affect the disbursement rate and efficiency of investment capital.

Therefore, with the national growth scenario facing several difficulties relating to first quarter performance, Hanoi has drawn up three scenarios aimed at managing socio- economic development in the hope of ensuring security and national defence, whilst also coping with the COVID-19. 

The first scenario sees social distancing measures ending on either April 22 or May 3, with economic hurdles being gradually removed before all activities return to normal by early July.

The second scenario outlines there being basic degree of control of the epidemic by the year’s second quarter, but there still being a risk of the COVID-19 spreading until the end of the year due to the epidemic situation in other countries being varied with some nations yet to successfully bring the virus under control. Consequently, economic recovery and social activities will be unable to return to normal and can only be carried out at a minimum.

In the third scenario, the epidemic continues to spread rapidly throughout the second quarter despite a range of social distancing measures being in place. This would see socio-economic development and the daily lives of people's encounter a range of difficulties.

On that basis, the capital is poised to implement a wide-ranging action plan and carry out urgent tasks and solutions aimed at removing hurdles for production and businesses whilst also ensuring social security in a bid to push back the epidemic.