Economist Nguyen Minh Phong

What are your assessments of Vietnam’s economic growth in the first eight months of 2024? What are the driving forces of the growth?

Vietnam experienced a positive economic growth in the first eight months of 2024.

This is an outcome of efforts Vietnam has made since 2023, its determination in 2024 and opportunities that the country has been leveraging.

In 2024, Vietnam’s economy has become much brighter than it was in 2023, and is forecast to develop even further next year.

This year, Vietnam has become a world-leading country in terms of economic growth. Driving forces of the growth include the recovery in the number of orders for producers and exporters, particularly in the textile-garment and leather and footwear sectors.

Vietnam has become an attractive destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) in different fields, especially promising sectors, such as high technology, chip manufacturing, and technological services.

Other driving forces include the flexible adaptation and strong efforts and guidelines of the Vietnamese Government and authorities at all levels, ministries, sectors, localities, and the business community; the country’s booming tourism sector; and thriving agriculture.

Although Vietnam is facing many challenges, the World Bank has raised its growth forecast for the country’s economic growth to seven percent in 2024. Vietnam is capable of reaching this and the country is even expected to reach a higher growth this year.

What should the Government and ministries, sectors and localities do in the remaining months of the year to make the country’s 6.5-percent growth target achievable?

I believe that most of the important solutions and tasks, as well as the main driving forces, have been recognized by the Government and stated in governmental resolutions, including Resolution 01, Resolution 02 and the subsequent ones.

The Prime Minister’s monthly directives noticed at Government meetings include solutions updated and adjusted in accordance with the actual development demands. From now until the yearend, we must continue to realize these solutions.

It is necessary to further leverage opportunities related to new-generation free trade agreements (FTAs), and foreign investment capital flows, as well as further improve the investment environment and simplify administrative procedures.

The industry and trade sector has set a target of reaching an export growth rate of six percent plus in 2024. What does it need to do to reach the target?

Although it is a challenging year for the industry and trade sector, 2024 has been a successful one. Vietnam reached a foreign trade value of US$511.11 billion in the first eight months of 2024, up 16.17 percent year-on-year, and earned a trade surplus of US$19.07 billion in the same period. This augurs that the sector’s targets will be achievable, while Vietnam’s import and export activities are expected to reach new records, providing overall momentum for the economy.

What are your forecasts for Vietnam’s economy in 2025?

2025, a special year and the last year of the 2021-2025 plan, will probably present us with some quite unexpected challenges, such as those related to climate change and non-traditional security issues. COVID-19 has provided us with certain lessons, so the Government, ministries, sectors and the business community have developed different growth scenarios.

It is important to accelerate digitization in order to develop a digital economy, digital government, digital enterprises, and digital society. These preparations will not only create momentum for Vietnam’s economy in 2025 but also help the country overcome the middle-income trap and become a new “Asian tiger,” as predicted by many international organizations./.