GDP has long been a key measure of economic performance. In today’s context, how is the understanding of prosperity evolving?

For much of the post-war period, GDP served as a reliable shorthand for progress, with industrial output, incomes, and living standards moving broadly in tandem. Today, that relationship is becoming less aligned with how modern economies create and distribute value.

What is changing is not just the pace of growth, but its nature. The rise of AI and intangible capital is decoupling output from employment, allowing firms to generate significant value with relatively few workers. At the same time, global supply chains are being reorganized along geopolitical lines, where resilience and risk diversification are becoming as important as efficiency.

While Vietnam has benefited from these shifts, they also introduce vulnerabilities that GDP figures alone do not reveal.

Income and wealth distribution are also becoming more central. GDP per capita may rise even as inequality widens, leaving segments of the population excluded from growth. Environmental constraints are no longer external considerations but binding economic conditions, particularly for countries highly exposed to climate risks. Alongside this, human capital, including skills, adaptability, health, and well-being, is emerging as a critical foundation for sustainable prosperity.

Taken together, these shifts point to a more multidimensional view of growth, where the key question is no longer how fast economies expand, but whether that growth is inclusive, resilient, and sustainable.

Growth has traditionally been expected to create jobs. How is that relationship changing in Vietnam?

The link between growth and employment is still functioning, but it is becoming more complex.

Vietnam’s export-led manufacturing model, supported by strong foreign investment, has historically delivered both high GDP growth and large-scale employment. However, structural shifts are beginning to reshape this dynamic. Manufacturing is upgrading but becoming less labor-intensive, as automation allows output to rise without proportional increases in employment.

At the same time, the services sector is expanding unevenly. High-value services create better-paid opportunities but require skills that much of the workforce does not yet possess, while lower-end services continue to absorb labor with limited productivity gains. AI is also transforming the nature of work, with the more immediate risk being underemployment or wage stagnation if workers cannot transition into higher-value roles.

As a result, growth continues to generate opportunities, but less automatically and less evenly than before. The focus is shifting from the quantity of jobs to their quality and accessibility.

If growth no longer guarantees broad-based employment, what does that mean for Vietnam’s development strategy?

It has two key implications. First, human capital becomes the central lever. Education, vocational training, and lifelong learning will determine whether workers can move into higher-value roles. Without this, the gains from growth risk becoming increasingly concentrated.

Second, policy needs to prioritize job-rich sectors of the future. Not all growth generates employment equally, and sectors such as advanced manufacturing, green energy, digital services, and logistics can still create meaningful jobs, but only if supported by strong ecosystems in skills, infrastructure, and local enterprise.

Vietnam is not yet experiencing “jobless growth,” but it is entering a phase where growth no longer guarantees broad-based employment gains by default. The challenge ahead is to actively shape the link between growth and opportunity.

Are we approaching a turning point in how growth should be measured?

There is a growing sense that economies are approaching such a turning point.

GDP is not becoming irrelevant, but it is becoming insufficient. In a context shaped by technological disruption, environmental constraints, and global fragmentation, headline output figures alone do not fully capture whether growth is durable, widely shared, or future-ready.

What is emerging is a more opportunity-based perspective on growth, where the focus shifts from how much an economy produces to what kinds of opportunities it creates, for whom, and under what conditions. This requires a broader set of complementary indicators that reflect income distribution, job quality, productivity, innovation capacity, economic resilience, and environmental sustainability.

What should Vietnam’s next growth model look like?

Vietnam’s next phase of development will require a more deliberate growth model, focused less on factor accumulation and more on long-term capability building.

At its core, this model should be anchored in productivity and innovation, enabling the economy to move from assembly-based activities toward higher-value functions such as design, engineering, and technology development. Human capital will play a central role, requiring not only improvements in education but also the expansion of lifelong learning systems that allow workers to adapt as industries evolve.

At the sectoral level, growth should be directed toward areas that combine productivity gains with employment generation, including advanced manufacturing, green industries, and modern services. Vietnam will also need to strengthen economic resilience by deepening domestic participation in global value chains and reducing exposure to external shocks.

Sustainability must be integrated into the core of the growth model, ensuring that expansion does not come at the expense of environmental degradation or long-term livability. Ultimately, this represents a shift from viewing growth as output to understanding it as the expansion of meaningful opportunities.

What role should social protection play in this new model?

In a traditional model, social protection is seen primarily as a safety net. In a more dynamic, opportunity-driven economy, this is no longer sufficient.

Social protection needs to evolve into a system that not only protects individuals from shocks but also enables them to adapt and participate in new opportunities. This requires closer integration with labor market policies, skills development, and access to essential services such as healthcare and education.

Expanding coverage to informal and gig workers is particularly important, as is ensuring that benefits are portable across jobs and regions. In this way, social protection becomes not only a mechanism for reducing vulnerability, but also a driver of economic dynamism.

How can technology expand opportunity rather than deepen inequality?

The impact of technology on opportunity depends on how well infrastructure, businesses, and workers are aligned.

Digital infrastructure must be designed for inclusion, ensuring that access to connectivity and digital services is affordable and widespread. Businesses need to focus on augmenting human capabilities, using AI to enhance productivity while investing in workforce development. Workers, in turn, must build adaptability, combining broad skills with deeper expertise and embracing continuous learning.

When these elements align, technology can expand participation in growth. When they do not, it risks reinforcing inequality.

What principles should guide implementation?

The transition to a new growth model depends less on strategy design than on execution.

Prioritization and sequencing are critical, as governments must focus resources on areas that can generate early momentum while building long-term capability. Flexibility is also essential, particularly in emerging sectors where experimentation and learning are necessary. Strong coordination across institutions, collaboration with the private sector, and investment in data and state capacity will be key to effective implementation.

Equally important is maintaining an inclusive social contract, ensuring that people see tangible improvements in their lives as the economy evolves.

Ultimately, what is the real test of growth?

Growth is no longer defined solely by how much an economy produces, but by how effectively it expands opportunities for its people. The real question is no longer how fast an economy grows, but whether that growth meaningfully enables people to participate in, and benefit from its progress.