Global aviation emissions account for 2-3 per cent of total CO2 output, with a notable 80 per cent coming from long-haul flights in excess of 1,500 km. According to forecasts from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), emissions from international flights could triple by 2050. 

Early positioning 

At a recent technical meeting on the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), experts agreed that aviation is among the hardest sectors to decarbonize due to its dependence on high energy-density liquid fuels. 

Vietnam currently operates 22 airports (nine international and 13 domestic), with 150 international routes connecting it with 25 countries and territories. The country aims to expand to 31 airports (15 international and 16 domestic) by 2030, and 34 (15 international and 19 domestic) by 2050.

As of early 2026, Vietnam Airlines was operating 69 international routes to 34 destinations in 21 countries and territories, alongside 40 domestic routes serving 22 destinations. With ambitious growth targets, Vietnam is moving toward reducing its aviation emissions, including participation in CORSIA and the development of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). 

Ms. Francesca Nardini, Deputy Resident Representative of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Vietnam, noted that CORSIA is not merely a compliance exercise but a signal of the aviation sector’s future direction. The scheme requires airlines to offset emissions exceeding 2019 levels from their international flights. Alongside operational improvements and aircraft technology, CORSIA plays a key role in the industry’s pathway to net-zero emissions by 2050. 

Vietnam’s decision to join the voluntary phase from 2026 is seen as a strategic move, positioning its aviation sector ahead of stricter global regulations. It also opens opportunities to participate in carbon markets by developing domestic projects that generate high-quality carbon credits, reducing reliance on international sources. 

Significant challenges 

Participation in CORSIA presents multiple challenges. Mr. Ta Quang Hung, Deputy Director of the Department of Science, Technology, Environment and Construction Materials at the Ministry of Construction, highlighted gaps in the legal framework for carbon markets, access to internationally-recognized carbon credits, airlines’ financial capacity, alignment with mechanisms such as Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, and global uncertainties. 

Ms. Nardini added that while Vietnam has made progress with its Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system and legal groundwork, major gaps remain, particularly in carbon market development, credit issuance and usage, and long-term airline strategies. 

SAF is expected to contribute up to 65 per cent of emission reductions. Vietnam boasts solid potential in producing SAF from used cooking oil (150,000-250,000 tons annually), biomass, and municipal waste (24-25 million tons annually). However, supply remains limited and costs are high, while regulatory and financial mechanisms to support SAF development are still lacking. There are also no mandates requiring airlines to use SAF. 

According to Ms. Nguyen Le Khanh Linh, Technical Specialist at PoA Carbon, with carbon credit prices projected at $21.7-$37.6 per credit, Vietnam Airlines alone could face offset costs of $335 million to $1.219 billion between 2026 and 2035. Globally, average airfares are expected to rise by $0.3-$2 per ticket in the first phase, potentially reaching $5 in the second phase, posing financial barriers for mass tourism and reducing Vietnam’s competitiveness compared to countries not implementing such mechanisms.

Optimal compliance roadmap

Experts emphasize that opting out of CORSIA is not a viable alternative, as non-compliance could result in higher financial burdens and reputational risks for both Vietnam and its airlines. This underscores the need for close coordination between airlines and government agencies to develop clear policies and an optimal compliance roadmap. Ms. Nardini stressed the importance of a transparent legal framework and strong public-private collaboration in the energy transition. 

From a business perspective, Vietnam Airlines has implemented four solutions aligned with the International Air Transport Association (IATA)’s pillars: deploying new-generation aircraft (reducing emissions by up to 20 per cent), improving air traffic and flight operations, using SAF, and offsetting emissions with carbon credits. Among these, SAF is considered the most critical. In 2026, the national flag carrier is expected to offset approximately 478,000 carbon credits, rising to 1.5 million by 2035 as its network expands. 

However, the airline has also called for the government to issue clear guidelines on CORSIA compliance and penalties, accelerate the issuance of a decree on international carbon credit trading, and introduce mechanisms to support domestic SAF production. Investments in aviation infrastructure and enhanced international cooperation are also seen as essential. 

Ms. Dang Hong Hanh, Market Specialist at PoA Carbon, emphasized that eligible carbon credits must meet strict ICAO criteria, including issuance mechanisms, additionality, and corresponding adjustments to prevent double counting. 

She proposed a phased, combined strategy. In the short term, airlines should prioritize direct purchases of carbon credits on the market to ensure full compliance with CORSIA requirements, particularly given limited preparation time and constrained supply. In the medium term, the use of forward contracts is seen as a key solution to help companies take greater control of financial planning, manage costs, and mitigate risks arising from volatility in international carbon credit prices. Over the long term, airlines should gradually study and invest in the development of carbon credit-generating projects, thereby securing supply, enhancing resilience, and reducing dependence on external markets.