Illustrated photo. Photo: N.Thanh

Vietnamese coffee still has a lot of room to boost exports to the world's leading coffee-consuming markets in the future.

According to the latest analysis of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), coffee imports of most large-capacity markets increased in the first seven months of 2022. As a result, the Vietnamese coffee industry also benefited.

However, since August, the global coffee market has faced difficulties, its prices have dropped to low levels, and demand has slowed down. Inflation is high, people tend to tighten their spending. The global coffee market will likely face difficulties in the last months of 2022 and the beginning of 2023.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has just forecasted that global coffee production in the 2022/2023 crop year would increase by 7.8 million bags (equivalent to an increase of 4.7%) compared to the 2021/2022 crop year.

Global coffee demand is expected to grow by 1.8 million bags to 167 million bags, with the biggest increases in the EU, the US, Japan, and Brazil. Global coffee exports are forecast to increase by 1 million bags to 141.5 million bags thanks to higher exports from Brazil and Indonesia.

The Import-Export Department specifically analyzes in-depth some of the world's leading coffee-consuming markets, typically France and Canada.

France is one of the major coffee-consuming markets in the world. According to the survey, 68% of French people drink coffee regularly. Their favorite types of coffee are specialty coffee and instant coffee due to their busy lives and increased personal income.

According to the International Trade Center, in the first seven months of 2022, France's coffee imports reached US$1.9 billion, up 7.5% over the same period in 2021. France imported US$40.7 million of coffee from Vietnam, up 64.9% over the same period in 2021.

Vietnam's coffee market share in France's total import value accounted for 2.14% in the first seven months, higher than the market share of 1.39% in the first seven months of 2021.

The EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) has helped Vietnam's coffee industry improve product value and increase market share in France. However, the French market has strict requirements on coffee quality, so Vietnam's coffee market share in total French imports has been low.

For the Canadian market, a representative of the Import-Export Department said that coffee was considered an important part of the daily routine of many Canadians.

According to a survey from the Canadian Coffee Association, 71% of Canadian adults drink coffee daily, consuming an average of 2.7 cups/day. Therefore, Canada is a potential market for coffee-exporting countries.

According to the International Trade Center, in the first seven months of 2022, Canada's coffee imports from the world reached US$1.08 billion, up 40.6% over the same period in 2021. In which, coffee imported from Vietnam reached US$18.4 million, up 88.5% over the same period in 2021.

Vietnam's coffee market share in Canada's total import value increased from 1.26% in the first seven months of 2021 to 1.69% in the first seven months of 2022. In general, the Vietnamese coffee industry has a lot of room to boost exports to this market in the future.

Currently, coffee beans from Vietnam are mostly Robusta with low quality, and the competition on cheap prices is no longer appropriate. To better take advantage of opportunities from the FTAs to promote coffee exports, meet the needs and tastes as well as penetrate deeper into the market of the FTAs, some agricultural experts believed that businesses need to invest in producing high-quality Arabica coffee from smaller-scale growing areas, with better governance, traceability, and more sustainable development.

Simultaneously, enterprises must actively and proactively build and develop customer relationships with large distribution corporations.

In the third quarter of 2022, Vietnam's coffee exports reached approximately 319,000 tons, worth US$753.9 million, down 27% in volume and 24.8% in value compared to the second quarter of 2022. Compared with the third quarter of 2021, it decreased by 6.9% in volume, but increased by 9.9% in value.

Compared to the second quarter of 2022, the value of Vietnam's coffee exports in the third quarter to all regions decreased. Compared to the third quarter of 2021, the export value to most regions increased, except for Africa. In the first nine months of 2022, the value of coffee exports to all regions increased compared to the same period in 2021. The highest increase of 97.2% was exported to the Oceania region; the lowest increase of 11.4% was exported to Asia.