The Politburo's Resolution 79-NQ/TW, signed on January 6 by Party General Secretary To Lam, reaffirms the state-owned economy as a “particularly important” element, tasked with playing a leading and pioneering role in creating and developing the socialist-oriented market economy, ensuring macroeconomic stability and major balances.

To achieve these goals, the resolution focuses on restructuring major state-owned groups and corporations, allowing weak state-owned firms to undergo bankruptcy or restructuring, and promoting governance reforms.

These include a shift toward post-audit supervision, risk-based management, digitalization, and the adoption of international standards.

By 2030, the resolution targets 50 state-owned enterprises in Southeast Asia’s top 500, one to three firms in the global top 500, and three state-owned commercial banks among Asia’s top 100. By 2045, the figures rise to 60 SOEs in Southeast Asia’s top 500 and five in the global top 500.

The policy announcement has fuelled a rally in shares of several state-owned groups and banks, helping drive Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index to successive record highs, reaching 1,867.9 points last Friday and 1,877.33 on Monday.

Shares of PV Gas have climbed from around VND60,000 to VND97,000 ($3.69) since early December 2025, while state-controlled lender Vietcombank rose from VND57,100 to VND72,700 ($2.77) in the past four trading sessions.

Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical (BSR), the operator of Dung Quat oil refinery, gained from VND16,000 to VND19,600 ($0.75) over five sessions. Similar gains were seen in Petrolimex, Vinacomin, VietinBank, BIDV and Vietnam Rubber Group.

However, analysts cautioned that not all state-owned stocks will benefit equally.

Speaking at an investment strategy conference hosted by Maybank Securities Vietnam last Friday, Quan Trong Thanh, head of research, said it would be a mistake for investors to simply buy stocks based on state ownership alone.

Drawing parallels with an earlier policy resolution, Resolution 68 on private sector development, he said stock performance depends on internal strength, management capability, and whether a sector is clearly prioritized.

Under Resolution 79, investors should focus on which industries are favored and which firms are positioned to lead, particularly those capable of executing ambitious growth plans.

Thanh said banking and energy are the two sectors most clearly prioritized, adding that investors should closely watch upcoming annual general meetings to see whether state-owned firms signal more aggressive growth targets, rather than conservative planning that can deter foreign investors.

Yuanta Securities Vietnam said Resolution 79 impacts the market through three main transmission channels.

First, it allows all proceeds from equitization and divestment to be retained for reinvestment, rather than remitted to the state budget, helping address capital constraints at major state banks such as BIDV and VietinBank.

Second, a clearer separation between “strategic” and “commercial” sectors, along with caps on state ownership in non-strategic firms, could trigger a new wave of state divestments in 2026-2027.

Third, more efficient use of land resources is expected to unlock value for state-owned firms, particularly rubber companies converting agricultural land into industrial parks, potentially driving sharp increases in net asset value.

Yuanta highlighted state-owned banks including Vietcombank, VietinBank and BIDV; industrial park developers such as GVR, PHR, DPR and NTC; energy and oil and gas firms including GAS, PVS, PVD and PVI; and companies linked to state divestment themes like FPT, DMC, NTP, HND, and SEA.

Meanwhile, analysts at MBS Securities said they favor leading state-owned listed firms with strong balance sheets, solid profitability with returns on equity above 10%, attractive valuations, or a clear divestment narrative.