However, with imports growing faster than exports and the trade deficit widening, the challenge is not simply to increase export turnover, but also to raise domestic value added, improve production efficiency and better capitalize on demand from international markets.

Final quarter requires multiple growth drivers to accelerate

According to the National Statistics Office (NSO), Vietnam’s GDP grew 9.01% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2026, including growth of 9.95% in the third quarter.

To achieve double-digit growth for the full year, GDP must expand by 12.5% in the fourth quarter, Prime Minister Le Minh Hung said at a recent regular cabinet meeting. “This is an ambitious target that will require the economy’s growth drivers to gain further traction in the final months of the year,” he noted.

Against this backdrop, exports have emerged as an important driver. The NSO reported that merchandise exports reached $434.3 billion in the nine-month period, up 24.5% from a year earlier. In the third quarter alone, export turnover totaled $167.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%.

Under the government’s Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP, dated January 8, 2026, Vietnam set a full-year export growth target of 15-16%. With nine-month performance already strong, exports have room to make a further positive contribution to economic growth in the final quarter.

However, export performance must be considered alongside import trends. Merchandise imports reached $453.7 billion in the first nine months, up 36.7% year-on-year, according to the NSO. Total trade turnover amounted to about $888 billion, while the merchandise trade balance recorded a deficit of $19.4 billion. In September alone, Vietnam posted a trade surplus of $1.27 billion.

Notably, imports grew faster than exports. This trend puts pressure on the trade balance, although the deficit alone is insufficient to conclude that imports are weighing on economic growth. About 94.1% of import value consisted of goods used for production, including machinery, equipment, raw materials and other inputs.

This highlights the need to distinguish between imports for consumption and those supporting production and investment. When imported goods are incorporated into production lines, helping expand capacity, generate export products and strengthen domestic businesses, their economic impact should be assessed across the entire value-creation process rather than solely through the trade balance at a given point of time.

Economist Dr. Can Van Luc said exports and imports should not be assessed in isolation. Imports of raw materials, machinery and equipment can support production and investment, helping expand the economy’s productive capacity. The key is to improve capital efficiency, apply technology, promote innovation and raise productivity.

Another expert Dr. Le Xuan Nghia, meanwhile, emphasized the role of investment in Vietnam’s economic growth at the current stage of development. Alongside labor and science-technology, investment remains a key growth driver, particularly as the economy seeks to expand production capacity and develop more capital-intensive sectors.

These assessments suggest that sustaining growth momentum in the fourth quarter will require exports to continue accelerating while being supported by expanded production, more efficient investment and businesses’ ability to fulfill orders. Strong export growth will have a greater economic impact when it generates spillover benefits for domestic manufacturing, employment and incomes.

Raising domestic value, strengthening export engine

One key challenge is that growth in export turnover does not necessarily translate into a proportional contribution to GDP. The actual economic benefit depends on the value generated domestically, the extent of domestic companies’ participation and their ability to take ownership of more stages of the production chain.

Nguyen Mai Hanh, head of the NSO’s system of national accounts department, said imports are recorded as a negative item in the expenditure approach to calculating GDP. However, rising imports do not necessarily have a negative impact on growth in every case. Imported machinery, equipment and raw materials can support investment and production expansion, generating output and value in subsequent stages.

The priority, therefore, is not simply to reduce imports, but to improve the efficiency with which imported goods are used while gradually strengthening domestic supplies of raw materials, components and other production inputs, she said.

As domestic businesses become more deeply integrated into supply chains, the share of value retained within the economy can increase, she added.

From a similar perspective, Nguyen Thu Oanh, head of the NSO’s service and price statistics department, stressed the importance of domestic value added. This factor should be central to assessments of export growth quality, rather than relying solely on the rate of increase in export turnover.

At the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Q3/2026 press briefing, Trinh Thu Hien, deputy head of the agency of foreign trade, also highlighted the need to coordinate export promotion with more effective and sustainable import management. She said that amid persistent global economic uncertainty, an increase in trade defense measures and intensifying competition, market monitoring and policy management must closely track market developments.

Measures outlined by the agency’s leadership include managing imports efficiently in line with production requirements and economic policy objectives; promoting exports by maximizing the benefits of existing free trade agreements and negotiating new ones; and helping businesses improve competitiveness, stay updated on regulations in destination markets, and receive early warnings about technical barriers and trade defense measures.

Over the longer term, Hien noted Vietnam needs to continue improving its institutional framework, strengthening domestic production capacity and increasing self-reliance in the supply of production inputs. These efforts would help raise domestic value added and ensure more sustainable export growth.

Experts believe exports can continue to support economic growth in the final months of the year. However, the objective is not merely to push export turnover higher, but also to translate market opportunities into stronger production capacity, higher productivity and greater value retained within the economy.

When export growth is accompanied by efficient investment, technological innovation and deeper participation by domestic businesses, it can make a more sustainable contribution to Vietnam’s goal of achieving double-digit economic growth.