For the second half of 2025, credit institutions expect stronger improvements in overall consumer credit demand

This additional credit limit is an active measure by the SBV, meaning that credit institutions do not need to request it. Previously, the SBV set a credit growth target of 16% for 2025.

Credit risk may increase slightly

The SBV Forecasting, Statistics – Monetary and Financial Stabilization Department stated that, according to credit institutions, overall customer credit demand continued to grow in the first six months of 2025 but remained significantly lower than the expected level recorded in the previous survey period. For the second half of 2025, credit institutions expect stronger improvements in overall consumer credit demand, with a focus on “corporate customers” and in sectors such as “industrial processing and manufacturing investment” and “import-export business”.

Compared to the December 2024 survey, credit institutions have lowered their expectations for increased credit demand across all surveyed sectors. Among the six main surveyed sectors, “commercial and service loans” are forecast to see the highest growth in demand, followed by “industrial and construction development loans,” “green credit,” “personal and consumer loans,” “agriculture-forestry-fisheries development loans,” and “high-tech investment loans.” Additionally, in 2025, many credit institutions forecast that corporate borrowing demand will rise more than individual borrowing. Demand for short-term loans is projected to expand more than medium- and long-term loans, and demand for VND-denominated loans is estimated to grow more than foreign currency loans.

Like in 2024, “economic growth trends,” “interest rate movements,” “changes in lending rates of credit institutions,” and “changes in investment demand for production and business” are forecast by credit institutions to exert positive effect on the increase in corporate credit demand in the last six months and throughout 2025. In addition to these factors, the “improvements of loan products of credit institutions” factor is expected to have a significant impact on the rise in personal borrowing demand in the last six months and throughout 2025.

Notably, the four economic sectors identified by many credit institutions as major drivers of credit growth in 2025 and expectedly in 2026 include “construction,” “processing and manufacturing industry,” “wholesale and retail,” and “food and beverage manufacturing.”

Focus on effective risk management

Nguyen Quoc Hung, Vice Chairman and General Secretary of the Vietnam Banks Association, said: Given a volatile economy, ensuring credit safety and enhancing risk management efficiency are becoming a critical factor for credit institutions, especially commercial banks. At the same time, the strong development of technology, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and big data analytics, presents new opportunities to optimize credit scoring processes, improve the accuracy of risk assessments, and enhance the quality of credit portfolios.

The SBV’s credit survey results show that credit risk of loans was assessed to have “slightly decreased” in the first half of 2025 but may slightly increase in the second half. However, the expansion is insignificant and remains much lower than in 2023 and 2024. Among 16 surveyed sectors, five are expected to experience a slight development in credit risk: “Real estate investment and trading,” “import-export business,” “securities investment and trading,” “financial, banking, and insurance business,” and “credit card loans.” Of these, the two sectors seen as having the highest potential risks are “real estate investment and trading” and “import-export business.”

The banking sector has made significant progress in applying advanced risk management tools, from building internal credit rating systems to implementing Basel II and Basel III standards, he noted. The SBV has also issued several important regulations regarding internal credit rating systems, requiring credit institutions to develop such systems to assess customers, serve as a basis for credit approval, manage credit quality, and formulate risk provisioning policies appropriate to their operational scope. To date, large credit institutions have established their own internal credit rating systems.

However, the current rating systems are revealing certain shortcomings. For example, the financial data of many customers is not publicly transparent and clear (except for public companies) while there are not many interconnected information data systems for direct verification. Important data such as tax data, social security data, customs data and telecommunications data have not been utilized, leading to incomplete and inaccurate scoring and rating outcomes. Internal credit rating systems of some credit institutions only use traditional data rather than non-traditional data for customer rating.

To carry out corporate credit rating models at banks, Mr. Trinh Van Duy, Director of the Risk Modeling Center, Risk Management Division, Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MB), suggested that the National Credit Information Center of Vietnam (CIC) should build separate scoring models for each customer segment. Notably, it is essential to integrate cross-sectoral data including tax, social insurance, securities, e-invoices, brand reputation, market reports, and even non-financial data. He also emphasized the need to strengthen data sharing cooperation among credit institutions through modern channels such as APIs or host-to-host connections to enhance real-time data access and support more accurate credit decision-making.

Mr. Ha Hoang Dung, Director of the Risk Management and Compliance Division, Vietnam International Commercial Joint Stock Bank (VIB), proposed the early introduction of guiding documents for the implementation of the Personal Data Protection Law. He also suggested establishing a leading body to represent the banking industry to aggregate data-sharing needs and direct the implementation of deidentified data sharing initiatives to support the construction of internal credit rating models at commercial banks.

Credit institutions plan to launch a large-scale risk management reporting system consisting of 160 to 200 reports, integrating AI and industry data from 2026. This system aims to enable them to develop strategic plans and control risks more systematically, modernly, and effectively.