Hanoi (VNA) – Vietnam’s durian exports are regaining momentum, supported by rising output, recovering overseas shipments and the approaching Central Highlands harvest. However, prices in the Chinese market remain under pressure amid abundant supply, softer consumer demand and intensifying regional competition.

According to Dang Phuc Nguyen, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, the country's durian exports are expected to exceed 2 billion USD by the end of July.

If the Central Highlands harvest proceeds smoothly and pending issues related to growing-area and packing-house codes are resolved promptly, exports could generate an additional 2 billion USD in the remaining months of the year, pushing the whole-year figure beyond 4 billion USD, up from 3.8 billion USD last year.

The optimistic outlook is underpinned by continued production growth. The Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection estimates Vietnam’s durian-growing area at around 192,000 hectares. Output reached approximately 1.8 million tonnes in 2025 and is forecast to rise to 2–2.1 million tonnes in 2026.

Rapid expansion of cultivation in recent years has driven annual production growth of 20–30%, creating significant export potential.

However, Nguyen warned that rising production also increases the urgency of approving additional growing-area and packing-house codes. If certification procedures fail to keep pace with output, the volume of durian eligible for official export channels will be constrained, affecting sales during the peak harvest season.

Alongside fresh durian exports, frozen products have also expanded this year as lower raw material prices enabled processors to purchase more fruit, particularly fruits that do not meet fresh-export standards. Nevertheless, this remains a supplementary segment.

The Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association noted that China imported around 8 billion USD worth of durian from Southeast Asia last year, including more than 1 billion USD in frozen products and nearly 7 billion USD in fresh fruit. This indicates that Chinese consumers continue to favour fresh durian.

For Vietnam, frozen products currently account for only 10–15% of total durian export value and are expected to rise to around 20% this year.

Frozen durian also faces logistical challenges because it requires strict temperature control throughout storage, transport and distribution. Meanwhile, value-added products such as frozen durian pulp and dried durian have yet to gain widespread popularity in the Chinese market. Despite rising export value, durian prices in China have fallen sharply. Nguyen attributed the decline primarily to weaker demand rather than quality concerns.

Many parts of China have been affected by heavy rain and flooding, slowing fruit consumption. This has affected not only durian but also many other imported fruits, he said.

Supply has also surged as Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia enter their harvest seasons simultaneously. In Thailand, durian prices have dropped to their lowest level in about a decade because of abundant output.

Vietnam is also entering its main harvest in the Central Highlands. While traders in China regard the region’s durian as high quality, the additional supply is expected to intensify market competition in the second half of the year.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Agency of Foreign Trade said improvements in logistics and lower transport costs have also contributed to weaker durian prices in China.

Thai and Vietnamese Monthong durians are currently retailing at 20–30 CNY (2.79 – 4.18 USD) per 0.5 kilo, well below 35–45 CNY during the same period last year. Wholesale prices have fallen even more sharply.

Improved logistics services have significantly shortened delivery times, boosting market supply. During the peak season, Thai durian can reach Kunming within about 26 hours and be distributed to more than 30 Chinese cities within 48 hours, increasing product availability across the market.

Exporters said premium durian varieties are expected to maintain relatively stable prices thanks to resilient demand, while mainstream products will continue to face downward price pressure as supply expands.

To support durian and other agricultural exports, the Government is preparing a resolution to simplify administrative procedures for growing-area and packing-house codes. The policy aims to shorten processing times, reduce compliance costs and strengthen post-clearance inspections and traceability.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment also said it will continue negotiations with Chinese authorities to accelerate approval of growing-area and packing-house codes, facilitating smoother agricultural exports./.