The real estate market is facing many difficulties and challenges. Photo: T.D

The main "deep colour gamut"

Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association and Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association, said that in the past 5 years (2018 to September 2022), the supply tended to decrease in high-end products, great value mainly. The total supply of new apartments in this period is nearly 300,000 products.

After 2 years of the pandemic, the total supply in 9 months of 2022 reached 41,886 products, equivalent to 24% compared to 2018. However, the absorption rate in the 3rd quarter of 2022 was only 33.5%, a sharp decrease compared to the first half period; transaction volume decreased by more than 50% compared to the same period last year. The average absorption rate was only 43%. Particularly in the third quarter, it decreased sharply compared to the first and second quarters, reaching only 33.5%; transaction volume decreased by more than 50% compared to the same period last year.

According to Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn, the picture of the real estate market in 2022 is with the main "deep colours" when the market begins to decline from the second quarter of 2022. The level of interest and transaction volume tends to decrease due to the impact of negative information, such as Major investors putting a deposit on a land plot in Thu Thiem (HCMC), the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) raised interest rates for the first time in more than 3 years, causing many commercial banks to increase deposit rates; owners of several businesses were arrested for bond violations; effects from Hanoi are tightening the separation of land parcels and real estate companies cutting a large number of employees when the market goes down. Meanwhile, the pressures and challenges of capital sources, inflation, and real estate selling prices being pushed up too high, not suitable for people's needs... are causing the real estate market to face many difficulties.

Analyzing the factors affecting the number of real estate transactions on the market in recent years, Nguyen Quoc Anh emphasized that capital is the first factor that clearly and directly affects it. This factor directly affects both real estate businesses and buyers. Because it is difficult for businesses themselves to manage capital to be able to implement projects. As for buyers, they cannot access or borrow capital to buy real estate. This is the general difficulty of the whole market. In addition, another difficult factor for buyers is the issue of price. Compared with foreign countries, real estate prices in Vietnam are still high. This reduces the possibility of trading in the market.

Find opportunities to "transform yourself"

Many people fear that in 2023, the real estate market will be difficult to regain its form. But according to experts, besides difficulties, the current Vietnamese real estate market still has a certain potential.

Figures from the Foreign Investment Agency (Ministry of Planning and Investment) show that the real estate business is still ranked second in the list of industries attracting foreign investment (FDI) in the 11 months of 2022, with a total investment capital of nearly 4.19 billion USD, accounting for 16.7% of the total registered investment capital.

Notably, on December 14, 2022, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh signed Official Dispatch 1164/CD-TTg on removing difficulties for the real estate market and housing development. According to this Official Letter, the Prime Minister requested the Ministry of Construction to continue working together with localities and businesses to proactively and actively review difficulties and obstacles in the implementation of real estate projects. . At the same time, it is necessary to guide and urge localities to immediately solve and remove contents falling under the competence of ministries, branches, localities and enterprises; summarize the operating results of the working group, handle them according to their competence and propose specific solutions beyond their competence, especially necessary and urgent solutions.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh directed the State Bank Governor to promptly provide credit capital to the economy, lending and disbursing quickly, with the proper focus, the right focus, the suitable subjects for businesses and real estate projects that meet the conditions following the provisions of the law. Furthermore, the Prime Minister assigned the Minister of Finance to review the bond issuance of real estate businesses and have appropriate and effective solutions to help remove difficulties and promote market development.

From a financial perspective, the Ministry of Finance is collecting opinions on the draft Decree amending and supplementing some articles of Decree 65/2022/ND-CP on the private placement of bonds to adapt to the rapidly changing market situation. According to experts, the new points of Decree 65/2022/ND-CP aim to increase the responsibility of investors when buying corporate bonds. Furthermore, in the real estate field, this is an opportunity for capable and reputable businesses to mobilize capital to deploy quality projects, open up supply, and meet the increasing demand for people's products.

In addition to supportive policies from the Government, ministries and sectors, Dr Can Van Luc, chief economist at BIDV, also offered solutions to shorten the difficult period of the real estate market. Typically, what real estate businesses need to do in the future is to restructure businesses, and control cash flow risks and exchange rates. At the same time, these businesses must actively explore access to rehabilitation programs, social housing programs, workers' houses, old apartments, etc. In addition, there are specific and feasible options for corporate bonds maturing in 2023-2024.

Some experts believe real demand is considered a "bright spot" to remove difficulties, so investors must restructure debt and sales policies and focus all activities on serving this customer demand. However, for the capital flow to open, there will need to be a large enough buying force. Real estate prices need to decrease further to activate cash flow from real buyers.