The consumer price index (CPI) is projected to increase by between 3.5% and 4% this year, according to experts at a seminar held in Hanoi on July 2, which focused on national market and price movements in H1 and forecasts for the whole year.

Assoc. Prof., Dr Nguyen Ba Minh, Director of the Institute of Economics-Finance at the Academy of Finance said there are two factors pushing the CPI up in the second half, which are recovering prices of materials and fuels after the pandemic is put under control, and the resumption of production and international trade and exchanges.

Meanwhile, factors that could restrain the CPI include slow economic recovery due to pandemic, trade wars and political instabilities in many areas in the world.

Besides, the prices of pork in the country are expected to subside thanks to efforts to improve the supply of the food.

Vietnam has carried out preventive measures against the COVID-19 pandemic, stabilised market prices, regulated currency policies for macroeconomic stabilisation and inflation control, thereby keeping the CPI stable, he added.

According to Dr Nguyen Duc Do, as inflation stood at 3.17% compared to the same period last year, the target of keeping inflation under 4% in 2020 will be possible.

He pointed out that the oil prices would not rise much as the recovery prospect for the world economy is gloomy, while domestic pork prices are unlikely to surge in the coming time as the Government allows imports of pigs. Therefore, he maintained the 3.5% projection for this year’s inflation.