With the convergence of macroeconomic factors, telecommunications infrastructure, demographics, and corporate financial capacity, Vietnam’s consumer electronics industry is seen as entering a new growth cycle over 2026–2030—one driven by value depth and operational efficiency rather than sheer volume.

The market shifts toward “premiumization”

According to analysis by Mirae Asset Securities, the household goods, tools, and home equipment segment recorded revenues in 2024 exceeding pre-pandemic 2021 levels, generating a positive sentiment spillover across consumer categories, including consumer electronics. This recovery in purchasing power is of higher quality than in previous cycles, as it is underpinned by income and employment growth rather than price stimulus.

From an infrastructure and consumer-behavior perspective, Vietnam’s mobile broadband penetration approached and exceeded 100 subscriptions per 100 people during 2023–2024 and is projected to reach around 110–115 in 2025–2026. This indicates that data penetration has reached a high threshold, shifting demand drivers from new user acquisition toward device upgrades and increased devices or connections per person.

At the same time, the share of household spending allocated to telecommunications and phones edged up from about 4.2% in 2018 to roughly 4.4% in 2024, reflecting the growing role of technology in daily life and providing a stable demand base for the consumer electronics sector over the medium to long term.

Statista forecasts show that during 2024–2029, real per-capita spending on information and communications technology (ICT) in Vietnam will rise steadily from around USD 128 per person to USD 200. However, this increase largely reflects income growth and value upgrades rather than a sharp expansion in mass-market consumption. This supports the view that the domestic consumer electronics segment is entering a phase of stable growth rather than a boom.

On the supply side, while domestic electronics production has shown signs of recovery, the industry has yet to return to a strong volume growth trajectory. Rising inventory levels amid simultaneous improvements in consumption and production suggest that companies are cautiously preparing supply, while also indicating that the sector is still rebalancing and has not clearly entered an expansion phase.

According to data from the General Statistics Office, average monthly per-capita income in Vietnam reached about VND 5.4 million in 2024, a marked improvement after the COVID-19 downturn, providing a foundation for technology spending that more accurately reflects actual consumer behavior.

Payment infrastructure and access to financial services continue to improve, as evidenced by rising bank card ownership during 2019–2024, a trend expected to remain high in the coming years. This supports more flexible spending options and facilitates consumption of mid- to high-value products, including consumer electronics.

Against this backdrop, industry growth is expected to be selective, concentrating on product categories with high utility value, clear replacement cycles, and strong potential for integrating new technologies, while traditional segments show signs of saturation and slower growth.

Mirae Asset also notes that demographic factors continue to reinforce the “quality-driven” growth thesis. The core target customer group aged 25–44 numbered about 31.97 million in 2021 and is projected to decline slightly to around 30.27 million by 2030, yet still accounted for more than 30% of the population in 2024. As a result, the premiumization trend aligns with a context in which the prime working-age population shrinks modestly in absolute terms but continues to prioritize spending on high-utility devices, even as total market volumes do not rise.

In the home audio-visual segment, Euromonitor forecasts retail TV volumes to drop 18% in 2025 year-on-year and to maintain a negative CAGR of 3% over 2025–2030. This reflects market saturation and a behavioral shift toward mobile devices and streaming. The segment’s value share within total consumer electronics is expected to decline from 22% in 2020 to 16% in 2025, with growth mainly driven by premiumization and technology-led replacement cycles.

Stock selection

In this context, stock selection should prioritize companies that effectively manage their product mix and inventories and can successfully close sales in the mid- to high-end segments.

According to Mirae Asset analysts, cumulative results for the first nine months of 2025 show a strong rebound for the consumer electronics sector, with revenue up about 15% year-on-year and net profit surging 73%. Notably, four of the five largest companies in the sector are expected to post ROE above 19% in 2025, signaling a clear improvement in growth quality.

Two names stand out: Digiworld Corporation (DGW) and Mobile World Investment Corporation (MWG). DGW delivered particularly strong profit growth, while MWG continues to serve as the sector’s profit anchor.

Specifically, DGW reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of VND 7,391 billion, up 19% year-on-year, and net profit of VND 166 billion, a 37% increase. DGW has reinforced its position as a diversified distributor, benefiting in the short term from replacement demand for household appliances and the restoration of enterprise infrastructure in central Vietnam following the November 2025 floods, while also gaining long-term tailwinds from FDI inflows into data centers and office infrastructure. The combination of near-term catalysts and long-term vision is expected to sustain stable growth in its office equipment segment in the coming period.

The 2025–2026 outlook is assessed as positive, supported by AI-integrated system upgrades and expanding FDI investment, with 2026 earnings per share projected at VND 2,886, corresponding to a P/E of about 15.2x.

MWG’s case illustrates a strategic shift from scale expansion toward efficiency optimization. Cumulative revenue for the first 11 months of 2025 reached VND 142,302 billion, up 16% year-on-year, while profits surged 73%. Growth drivers include same-store sales growth of around 20% at The Gioi Di Dong and Dien May Xanh chains, alongside Bach Hoa Xanh turning profitable and beginning its expansion into northern Vietnam with its first stores in Ninh Binh in late 2025—paving the way for plans to open about 1,000 new stores annually. Accordingly, 2026 EPS is projected at VND 4,845, implying a P/E of around 17.8x.

Overall, Vietnam’s consumer electronics industry has entered a phase of slower but more sustainable growth, where the primary driver is value rather than volume. Investment strategies should therefore focus on companies capable of adapting to premiumization trends in products and services, maintaining strong operational control, and leveraging the next wave of technology upgrades—particularly AI—to sustain profit growth in a more mature market.