As the 2025 annual shareholders' meeting season is approaching, Vietnamese banks are unveiling optimistic profit targets on the expectation of strong economic growth and credit recovery.

While several commercial banks project profit increases of 20-33%, others, particularly state-owned, are taking a more cautious approach amidst unpredictable global financial conditions, highlighting a growing divergence in the banking sector’s outlook for this year.

Ho Chi Minh City Development Commercial Joint Stock Bank (HDBank)'s Chief Financial Officer Pham Van Dau revealed plans to increase profits by 25%, aiming to join the elite group of banks with profits exceeding 20 trillion VND (784.65 million USD). The bank expects to maintain its market-leading efficiency ratios with projected ROE of 25% and ROA of 2%.

He said the bank’s development strategy will focus on small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and individual customers in tier-2 urban and rural areas, which offers significant growth potential with manageable risk. Additionally, the bank plans to capitalise on export firms and the recovering real estate market, while accelerating digital transformation initiatives to deliver on its set goals.

Vietnam Property Joint Stock Commercial Bank (VPBank) also sets ambitious targets, with its Deputy CEO Luu Thi Thao announcing plans for 20-25% profit growth before tax, potentially reaching 24-25 trillion VND. The bank achieved pre-tax profits of over 20 trillion VND in 2024 and aims to grow its retail and SME segments by 30-40% in 2025.

Meanwhile, Vietnam Export Import Commercial Joint Stock Bank (Eximbank)'s board of directors approved a 33% profit growth target, projecting pre-tax profits of 5.58 trillion VND for 2025. This followed their robust performance in 2024, when the bank achieved nearly 4.2 trillion VND in profits despite economic challenges.

However, some banks take a more vigilant step. Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MB) projects a profit growth of 10% to exceed 20 trillion VND, despite planning for 22% asset growth. MB's CEO Pham Nhu Anh cited global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions as reasons for their outlook.

State-owned banks are similarly prudent in their projections. The Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (Vietcombank) aims for just 5% profit growth, while Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV) eyes 6-10% growth in pre-tax profits for 2025.

The varied projections come as the State Bank of Vietnam sets a high credit growth target of 16% to support the 8% economic expansion goal. Experts are predicting the banking sector’s profit could increase by 10-20% in 2025 on the back of the economic recovery, including infrastructure development, property, and individual consumption.

VinaCapital’s Chief Economist Michael Kokalari anticipates a 17% profit increase for listed banks while experts from Vietcombank Securities predict a 15% sector-wide growth, with private banks potentially outperforming state-owned institutions.

A recent survey by the State Bank of Vietnam's Forecasting and Statistics Department revealed that over 85% of credit institutions expect positive profit growth in 2025, though 9.6% concern about negative growth and 5.3% expect unchanged results./.