A farmer harvests coffee in Kon Tum Province. (Source: VNA)

Coffee prices are soaring at an unprecedented pace, surpassing expert predictions and raising concerns over market speculation.

On February 11, coffee prices in the Central Highlands climbed to 131,000 VND (5.1 USD) per kilogramme, an increase of 2,000 VND from the previous day.

On the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices fluctuated between 5,573 USD and 5,696 USD per tonne, while Arabica coffee on the New York exchange surged by 540 USD, reaching 9,460 USD per tonne for the March 2025 contract.

According to nld.com.vn, Phan Minh Thong, Chairman of Phuc Sinh JSC, described the current price surge as insane and warned that the upward momentum could continue. He noted that businesses are being forced to buy and sell at elevated prices rather than securing pre-determined contracts.

The price hike is largely driven by tightening Arabica supply from Brazil—the world’s largest producer—as the country’s harvest season concludes. Meanwhile, farmers are holding back stock, anticipating further price increases. This supply squeeze has sustained Robusta prices at high levels, with the price gap between the two coffee types widening to 3,780 USD per tonne.

Despite record-high prices, Vietnamese coffee farmers remain cautious about selling. Nguyen Thi Chien, a coffee grower in Kon Tum, said that her family sold only one tonne at 115,000 USD per kilogramme, keeping the rest in storage in hopes of further gains. However, market volatility has left many farmers uncertain about the optimal time to sell.

From October 2024 to January 2025, Vietnam’s coffee exports declined sharply in volume, but increased in value. In January alone, the country exported 137,568 tonnes of coffee, generating 694.93 million USD —a 38.2% drop in volume but an 8.8% rise in value year-on-year.

Director of Global Trade Link Co., Ltd., Nguyen Ngoc Luan, remains optimistic about the price outlook, citing concerns over crop failures and potential U.S. tariffs on South American goods, which could strengthen Vietnam’s competitive position in the global market.

However, Nguyen Huu Long of Vietnam Coffee Academy JSC raised concerns that domestic coffee prices remain 15,000 USD per kilogramme lower than those on the London exchange, suggesting potential price manipulation.

The soaring prices have also raised alarms over counterfeit coffee production. In late January, authorities in Gia Lai uncovered three facilities in Pleiku mixing unidentified chemicals into ground coffee. Similarly, Brazil’s Coffee Roasters Association (ABIC) issued a warning about adulterated coffee made from husks, leaves and other non-coffee substitutes.

Despite record-high prices, Vietnam’s coffee industry is unlikely to face an oversupply crisis, as land for coffee cultivation remains limited. Experts predict that strong prices will persist until July 2025, but warn farmers against excessive speculation to avoid financial risks.