Farmers classify coffee beans. Coffee exports are estimated to reach 2.9 billion USD in the first five months of this year, up 43.9 per cent over the same period last year. (Source: VNA)

Coffee export prices averaged 4,208 USD per tonne in May, 11.7% higher than April and 63.6% higher than May 2023. Prices averaged 3,428 USD per tonne from January through May, up 49.9% over the same period last year.

Despite impressive export value growth, Vietnam’s coffee industry is facing a drop in output for export due to prolonged heat and drought.

Since the beginning of the crop season in October 2023, Vietnam has exported more than 1.2 million tonnes of coffee, meaning that inventory is low while prices remain high.

The Vietnam Coffee Association (Vicofa) predicted that Vietnam’s coffee exports might fall by 20% in the 2023-24 crop season to 1.336 million tonnes.

The Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) under the US Department of Agriculture, however, forecast Vietnam’s robusta coffee output to see a slight decrease from 28 million bags to 27.9 million bags, or 1.68 million tonnes.

According to the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam, concerns about falling output for major coffee exporters, including Brazil and Vietnam, will continue to boost coffee prices.

Vicofa expected coffee prices to remain at high levels in June.

The agriculture ministry, however, urged farmers not to ramp up coffee planting without following plans.

Coffee is one of seven products that fall within the scope of the European Deforestation Regulation, which will take effect by the end of this year.

Under the new rules, coffee that cannot be proven to not be linked to deforestation after December 31 will not be allowed to enter the EU.