The most likely scenario is for the VN-Index to trade sideways before breaking out to 1,280 - 1,300 points in 4Q23.

>> Did the VN-Index reach a short-term bottom?

The stock market may have taken a short pause for most of September 2023 after the VN-Index returned from 1,050 points to 1,240 - 1,250 points by the end of August 2023.

Increased self-assurance

Inflation in advanced economies such as the United States, Europe.... is at an all-time high, according to global macroeconomic dynamics. The European Central Bank (ECB) has raised interest rates by 0.25% to 4%, a historic high since 1999, in order to curb increasing inflation. Although US inflation remains high, it appears that the FOMC did not raise interest rates at its September meeting, as analysts predicted. However, the possibility of 0.25% rate hikes may be addressed at the November 2023 meeting.

Despite fears about an economic downturn and increasing inflation, worldwide stock indices, particularly the Dow Jones, rose beyond 35,300 points and approached 37,000. When investor confidence and the macroeconomic environment are influencing stock market patterns this year. Asian stock markets are also more volatile than European stock markets.

Regardless of the war between Russia and Ukraine or global inflation, the trend of rate reduction, as well as methods to overcome challenges in the real estate market, cash flow are improving investor confidence in the stock market. As a result, when the Vietnam stock market recovered more than 200 points from the beginning of 2023, it outperformed many investors' predictions. The VN-Index has climbed the most in Asia. Many stocks have risen from their lows, including those in the financial services sector, which has increased by 79.6%, chemicals (40.32%), information technology (30%), basic resources (30.04%), and oil and gas (27.27%).

The significant rise in stock indices and basic stocks represented a large injection of capital. Billion-dollar trading sessions have returned, investor confidence has increased, and opportunities for investment are more plentiful than ever.

>> The VN-Index could continue to be under downward pressure

Positive outlook

The stock market moved in a narrow range after an upswing, above the strong support zone of 1,200 - 1,215 points and below the strong resistance zone of 1,240 - 1,250 points. To further comprehend this pattern, we may track the movements of the VN30 stocks as well as leading stocks such as those of stock firms.

The stock indexes have began a swing with increasing/decreasing sessions in the context of highly diversified cash flows, changing from banking and real estate equities to steel, industrial real estate, oil and gas, utilities, and so on. However, certain stocks with high potential might still move against the market and earn points.

Although the VN-Index has been trading sideways in September, its long-term uptrend remains intact. In any event, the macroeconomic outlook may improve, particularly by the end of 2023, when direct and indirect investment flows are strongly distributed, import-export is brighter, and investment in major national projects is increased.

The most likely scenario is for the VN-Index to trade sideways before breaking out to 1,280 - 1,300 points in 4Q23. Regardless, investors continue to pay attention to portfolio management, and they may still hold stocks with a view to the end of 4Q23, while cautiously trading highly speculative equities such as securities stocks, real estate stocks, and so on. The bulk of investors will benefit by paying greater attention to individual stocks rather than the overall stock market.