Việt Nam’s banks are set for a significant increase in bond issuance in 2025, as financial institutions look to meet the State Bank of Vietnam’s ambitious credit growth target of 16 per cent, according to experts.

This move aims to inject more capital into the economy and sustain growth momentum amid global economic uncertainties and domestic financial challenges.

According to analysts from VNDirect Securities Corporation, financial institutions will actively engage in private bond placements to strengthen their medium and long-term capital structures.

Private bond placements will provide banks with the necessary liquidity to support the recovery of corporate bond issuance.

While banks are set to take advantage of bond issuance, the real estate sector faces significant challenges due to upcoming bond maturities.

VNDirect estimated that the total value of privately placed corporate bonds maturing in 2025 will reach about VNĐ203 trillion (US$8 billion), reflecting an 8.5 per cent increase from the previous year.

Notably, over VNĐ62 trillion of these bonds are those that had their maturities extended and are now due for payment in 2025.

The concentration of maturing bonds will be particularly high in the second half of the year, with over 65 per cent of total maturities occurring in the final two quarters.

The real estate sector alone accounts for more than VNĐ130 trillion, or approximately 64 per cent of the total maturing bonds.

Given the ongoing liquidity constraints and slow recovery in the property market, real estate companies will likely face continued cash flow challenges.

The finance and banking sector ranks second, with over VNĐ33 trillion in maturing private corporate bonds, representing 16.3 per cent of the total maturity value in 2025.

Weak investor confidence

According to analysts at VNDirect, with efforts by regulatory agencies to address challenges in the market, the corporate bond sector has gradually begun to recover in 2023 and 2024.

However, significant obstacles remain for the market to achieve a breakthrough in 2025.

The first challenge is the persistent weakness in investor confidence in the corporate bond market.

While authorities have taken action against several violations recently, the risk of private placements facing payment delays remains considerable, particularly in the real estate sector. As such, additional time is required to rebuild trust among market participants and investors.

Additionally, the ongoing tightening of conditions for issuing inpidual corporate bonds to professional investors may restrict the volume of new bond issuances in the near future.

Specifically, the amended Securities Law introduces new regulations stating that professional securities investors can only engage in the purchase, trading and transfer of a private placement under one of two conditions. First, the bonds must have a credit rating and be secured by related assets, or second, they must have a credit rating with a guarantee from a credit institution.

In comparison to the previous regulations outlined in Decree 65/2022/NĐ-CP and Decree 153/2020/NĐ-CP, which governed the private placements for professional retail investors, the current rules are notably more stringent.