How would you assess Vietnam’s trade performance so far, and what are your expectations for the second half of 2025?

Tran Thanh Hai, deputy director-general of the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Agency of Foreign Trade

The first half of 2025 has provided a relatively solid footing. Our total import-export turnover achieved double-digit growth, and the trade surplus reached around $5 billion. This reflects resilience and competitiveness in global markets despite an unpredictable global landscape.

However, there are growing uncertainties in the second half of the year. Most notably, tensions in the Middle East have escalated. This situation could cause major disruptions to global shipping routes, resulting in congestion, delays, and significantly higher freight rates. These developments will pose challenges to Vietnamese exporters in terms of both costs and market access.

One of the critical issues is the status of Vietnam–US trade negotiations, particularly regarding tariffs. Currently, we do not yet have a conclusive outcome on whether duties will be lowered, and by how much. This uncertainty places additional pressure on businesses, making it difficult for them to forecast, make pricing decisions, or adjust production plans in advance.

It also means that Vietnamese firms might have to consider contingency strategies, such as diversifying their export destinations or adjusting product lines, in order to mitigate the risks associated with over-reliance on a single market.

What steps is the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) taking to support exporters and maintain trade growth in the second half of the year?

The MoIT is pursuing a four-fold strategy to support the export sector. Firstly, we remain committed to deepening international economic integration by negotiating and expanding free trade deals. They are essential in creating new opportunities for our goods and services, reducing barriers, and offering preferential access to strategic markets.

Secondly, we are stepping up trade promotion efforts. This includes organising trade delegations, participating in international exhibitions, and connecting domestic producers with overseas distributors. These activities help enterprises take full advantage of trade deals and increase visibility in competitive markets.

Thirdly, we are focusing on guiding enterprises to maximise the use of rules of origin in their export processes. While many businesses are familiar with these regulations, a large number still lack the capacity or tools to effectively utilise them. Improved use of origin certification can enhance competitiveness, reduce tariff costs, and strengthen compliance in export markets.

Lastly, we are working on restructuring and enhancing the resilience of supply chains. This involves reviewing our import sources to ensure stable input for production and pushing for greater localisation. Over time, these efforts will lead to more transparent and sustainable supply chains that are better equipped to deal with global shocks.

In recent months, shipping costs have increased again. What are the main causes, and how is the government addressing the issue?

There are two main drivers of rising freight costs. Firstly, China has been accelerating its exports following temporary tariff adjustments with the United States, which has increased demand for shipping capacity across Asia. Secondly, the aforementioned geopolitical tensions are disrupting key routes, particularly around the Red Sea and Suez Canal, thereby driving up insurance and transportation costs.

In response, the MoIT has been coordinating with other ministries, to help businesses adopt more efficient and flexible logistics strategies. We have encouraged enterprises to explore alternative modes of transport, such as railway freight, which can be more cost-effective and less vulnerable to maritime bottlenecks.

In the long term, Vietnamese businesses must develop strategies based on risk management and operational efficiency. The lessons from the pandemic and recent global instability have demonstrated the importance of agility and forward planning in supply chain operations.

The global shipping industry is preparing for a carbon tax expected to be implemented by October. What does this mean for Vietnam’s maritime sector, and how are we responding?

The upcoming global carbon tax will pose significant challenges to Vietnam’s maritime industry. The International Maritime Organization is tightening emissions requirements, and shipping companies worldwide will be expected to reduce their carbon footprint.

Vietnamese shipping firms are facing pressure to transition to low-carbon or alternative fuels. Our maritime sector remains heavily reliant on traditional fossil fuels, which puts us at a disadvantage in terms of compliance and competitiveness.

The Vietnam Maritime Administration has already submitted a proposal outlining a roadmap for green transition in the shipping sector. This includes supporting the shift to cleaner fuel technologies and encouraging the upgrade and renewal of the national fleet to enable compatibility with such fuels.

However, this transition will require substantial investment. The government acknowledges this and is exploring financial support mechanisms to assist businesses. Such support is vital to encourage enterprises to modernise their fleets and adopt advanced propulsion systems.

With proper coordination between the state and private sector, we believe Vietnam’s maritime industry can gradually align with global environmental standards while enhancing its long-term sustainability and competitiveness.