Property recorded positive 3Q22 earnings growth (42.5% yoy) for the first time since 3Q21.

>> 2H22F earnings of listed property companies could bounce back

3Q22 market earnings growth

Based on VNDirect’s estimates, 3Q22 aggregate earnings of listed companies on three bourses (HOSE, HNX, and UPCOM) increased by 17.4% yoy, higher than that of 2Q22 (11.3% yoy), but slightly below 3Q21 (18.9% yoy).

Market earnings for 9M22 increased by 21.4% yoy, which is still in line with our prediction of 23% yoy for FY22F. Among the firms VNDirect covers that have released their 9M22 results, 50.0% met its expectations, 16.7% exceeded them, and 33.3% fell short of them.

Top growth contributors

Listed banks’ earnings rose robustly by 59.2% yoy in 3Q22 thanks to: (1) the recovery of BID’s earnings (158% yoy), which make up 12% of the banking sector; and (2) the ease of provisioning pressure.

Property recorded positive 3Q22 earnings growth (42.5% yoy) for the first time since 3Q21, thanks to strong positive 3Q22 NPs from KBC (VND1,919bn) and VIC (VND947bn), compared to negative results of VND68bn and VND351bn in 3Q21, respectively.

Transportation (ports and logistics) earnings extended the upward trajectory since 1Q22 (33.1% yoy), 2Q22 (116.6% yoy), and 3Q22 (340.6% yoy). The biggest contributor is ACV (airport), which posted VND2,397bn in 3Q22 earnings (vs. a loss of VND855bn in 3Q21).

Together, banks, real estate, and transportation contributed 30.4% to the market’s 3Q22 NP growth.

>> 2Q22 earnings growth takes a breather

A harder time for steel makers and brokerage firms

Listed steel makers recorded a loss of VND4,500bn in their 3Q22 bottom lines following high inventory costs, subdued selling prices, and rising FX losses. Brokerage firms experienced a sharp drop of 68.1% yoy in 3Q22’s earnings as stock market liquidity compressed by 40.9% yoy in 3Q22, and the corporate bond market has suffered from negative sentiment after many violations.

leverage ratio to improve

3Q22’s market gross margin (non-bank) compressed significantly to 15.5% from 19.7% in 3Q21. Since 1Q22, the market's leverage ratio (excluding banks) has been decreasing.

"We estimated the total debt balances of listed corporates, which compressed 0.9% qoq but expanded 7.7% yoy. The wave of corporate bond buybacks in the past 3 months could partially explain this downturn. Accordingly, the cost of debt ratio of listed corporates weakened to 5.8% in 3Q22 from 6.1% in 2Q22, but was still higher than the FY21 average of 5.5%, said Mr. Vu Hung, an analyst at VNDirect.

It should be noted that the market's leverage ratio (excluding banks) has been gradually decreasing since 1Q22. Mr. Vu Hung estimated the total debt balance of listed corporates at 0.9% QoQ, which later increased to 7.7 QoQ.  The wave ofcorporates bondbuybackskin then past 3 months could partially explain this downturn.Accordingly, the, cost of debt ratio of listed corporates weakened to 5.8% in 3Q22 from 6.1% in 2Q2, butremainedl higherthan then FY21 average (5.5%).