Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2024 is forecast to exceed seven percent

Fruits of efforts

According to the information reported by the Government at the national conference held in early December, Vietnam will achieve or even exceed all 15 socioeconomic targets for 2024. Among these, the annual GDP growth is estimated to exceed seven percent, placing Vietnam among the few countries with high growth rates in the region and the world.

According to Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung, Vietnam’s economy has shown clear signs of recovery in 2024 and is forecast to experience high growth in the fourth quarter, leading to an annual GDP growth of seven percent or higher.

According to Pham Tan Cong, Chairman of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2024 is expected to exceed seven percent, higher than the 6-6.5-percent target set by the National Assembly. With this growth rate, Vietnam is among the fastest-growing countries in the region and the world, receiving high praise from reputable international organizations.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Vietnam will be one of the fastest-growing countries in the world, with strong export and import growth. Vietnam ranks 23rd globally in terms of export value and 22nd in terms of imports. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to reach US$39-40 billion in 2024.

In early 2024, the National Assembly set an annual GDP growth target of 6-6.5 percent. At that time, this target was said to be too high and ambitious that could hardly be achieved. Several economists, both domestic and international, proposed that Vietnam lower this growth target to reduce pressure on ministries, sectors, localities, and the economy. This suggestion stemmed from the fact that in recent years, Vietnam had set higher growth targets than what was actually achieved. For example, in 2023, the growth target was set at 6.5 percent, but the actual growth rate was only 5.05 percent.

Aware of numerous difficulties and challenges still facing the economy due to unpredictable global, regional, and domestic economic context, the Government has maintained its growth target of 6-6.5 percent for 2024 and implemented a series of measures to achieve it. As a result of these efforts, GDP growth has gradually recovered, with each quarter showing higher growth than the previous one. Specifically, the GDP growth rate reached 5.66 percent in the first quarter, 6.93 percent in the second quarter, and 7.4 percent in the third quarter, bringing the nine-month GDP growth to 6.82 percent, significantly higher than earlier expectations.

Eight-percent GDP growth target for 2025

Based on the 2024 GDP growth, the National Assembly has issued a resolution on the socioeconomic development plan for 2025, setting a growth target of 6.5-7 percent. However, the Prime Minister has boldly set a GDP growth target of eight percent for 2025.

Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong believes Vietnam has a solid foundation to achieve this target, as the growth momentum of 2024 can continue in 2025, the final year of the 2021-2025 plan.

To “take off,” Vietnam needs to achieve double-digit growth rates in the coming years

Economists also believe that 2025 will bring many new factors with fundamental changes that will stimulate economic growth. These include institutional changes approved by the National Assembly during the eighth session, including the amended Value Added Tax Law, the amended Electricity Law, the Public Investment Law, and the Fire Prevention, Firefighting, and Rescue Law. The significant change in these laws is the breakthrough thinking, aimed at removing obstacles and simplifying administrative procedures. The central idea of these laws is to address bottlenecks and challenges. These laws will take effect from the beginning of 2025 to stimulate growth by unlocking resources that have long been bottlenecked.

With the strong determination of the Government, the Prime Minister has directed efforts to achieve the eight-percent growth target. This is in line with what Party General Secretary To Lam has stated, “We are ready to enter a new era, an era of the nation’s rise.”

Although there are “new drivers” for growth, achieving the eight-percent target for 2025 is an immense challenge. However, Party General Secretary To Lam has instructed, “To become an upper-middle-income country by 2030 and a high-income nation by 2045, Vietnam must achieve continuous double-digit economic growth in the coming years.”

According to the Party General Secretary, to achieve high growth targets, the Party Central Committee, the Government, and the National Assembly are focusing on addressing bottlenecks and establishing fundamental factors that will enable the country to “take off,” especially issues related to transport and energy infrastructure, human resources, physical facilities, institutional reforms, and administrative procedures./.