Energy demand to outpace supply in short term

Sat, 26 Nov 2022 17:28:00  |  Print  |  Email   Share:

Electricity demand has been growing steadily since 2021 and is expected to surpass domestic output in the short term.

Cầu năng lượng vượt cung trong ngắn hạn ảnh 1
Nhà máy Nhiệt điện Phả Lại. CTCP Nhiệt điện Phả Lại, đơn vị vận hành nhà máy, lãi ròng 155 tỷ đồng trong quý III/2022. (Ảnh:
Electricity demand has been growing steadily since 2021 and is expected to surpass domestic output in the short term.

According to VietinBank Securities (VBS), electricity demand in Vietnam is projected to grow by 8.5% annually in the next five years, mostly coming from manufacturing and construction sectors.

The fast-paced demand is forecast to exceed domestic output by 13.3 billion kWh in 2023 and 27.7 billion in 2025, leaving the country with no choice but to import liquefied natural gas and generate more thermal power to pick up the slack.

VBS did not expect renewable energy to contribute much to the output between 2023 and 2025 as there are still a number of obstacles in the way of green projects. However, the transition to renewable energy has been well underway and this type of energy is expected to take the front seat after 2025.

Vietnam Electricity was concerned that the backup capacity rate would drop steadily after 2023, leading to electricity shortages in the short term.

Specifically, the backup capacity rate is projected to fall to 18% in 2025 with electricity output falling short of demand by 27.7 billion kWh. In the North, the rate is likely to stay as low as 10% during the period.

Mirae Asset said the country has planned to purchase electricity from Laos to fill the supply-demand gap. 

To this end, the Nam Mo-Tuong Duong Electricity Transmission Line has been built to transmit electricity from Nam Mo Hydropower Plant to Vietnam. The line has reached 91% of its completion and is slated to operate in November.

On the bright side, electricity producers raked in huge profits in Q3/2022 on the back of the mounting power demand.

Mien Trung Power Investment & Development JSC (HNX: SEB) made revenue of 66 billion VND, up 50% year-by-year. Its after-tax profit hit 31.3 billion VND, soaring over one-hundred-fold against last year.

Nuoc Trong Hydropower JSC (HNX: NTH) followed suit with an after-tax profit of 10.4 billion VND, over twenty times higher than the figure in 2021. A Vuong Hydropower JSC was riding high with earnings of 180 billion VND, nearly fourfold more profitable than that of the previous year.

Vinh Son-Song Hinh Hydropower JSC (HOSE: VSH) earned 220 billion VND, in contrast to Q3/2021 when it was running at a loss of 42 billion VND. Pha Lai Thermal Power JSC (HOSE: PPC) posted a net profit of 155 billion VND, against a loss of 35 billion VND in Q3 last year.

Các nhà sản xuất khác kiếm bộn tiền trong quý 3 trong bối cảnh nhu cầu điện tăng cao bao gồm Nhiệt điện Hải Phòng lãi sau thuế 41 tỷ đồng, Nhiệt điện Quảng Ninh lãi 147 tỷ đồng, Nhiệt điện Bà Rịa lãi 86,5 tỷ đồng, và CTCP Thủy điện Thác Bà (HOSE: TBC) với 105 tỷ đồng.

Chứng khoán ACB cho biết an ninh năng lượng là ưu tiên hàng đầu của Chính phủ Việt Nam do ngành năng lượng là động lực tăng trưởng của đất nước. 

Công ty cũng cho biết triển vọng của ngành là sáng sủa trong ngắn hạn nhờ sự phục hồi của các công ty sau đại dịch./.

By: Business Forum Magazine



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