“Supply-chain realignment” is the polite phrase for a world reorganising itself at speed. Capital is reorganising too. With higher rates, a tighter risk appetite and sharper geopolitical screens, investors aren’t paying for potential alone anymore – they're paying for execution.

That’s why 2026 feels less like another ASEAN up-cycle and more like an inflection point. Multiple forces are peaking together – geopolitics, digital and AI, electrification and climate capital – and ASEAN sits at their intersection.

To make this moment count, ASEAN needs to evolve from a collection of attractive individual markets into ASEAN-as-a-system: an integrated production, services and capital platform with the “plumbing” to match – connectivity, standards, payments, logistics and policy coordination.

The 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu this month offered a timely reminder of how quickly the region’s agenda is shifting. Energy security, once a background consideration, dominated proceedings, with leaders agreeing to accelerate cross-border power grid connectivity and fuel-sharing arrangements in response to mounting supply risks. The ASEAN Power Grid, long a diplomatic ambition, is now a commercial and strategic imperative.

That energy urgency sits alongside another landmark: the signing last October of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area 3.0 Upgrade Protocol (ACFTA 3.0), the most significant upgrade to ASEAN-China trade rules since 2010. ACFTA 3.0 extends cooperation into the digital economy, green economy and supply chain. China has been ASEAN’s largest trading partner for sixteen consecutive years, with bilateral trade reaching nearly USD1 trillion in 2024. For Vietnam, which counts China as both its largest import source and a major export market, the upgrade creates new institutional scaffolding for higher-value trade flows.

From “China1” to “ASEAN-as-a-system”

Foreign interest in ASEAN is often framed as “China1”: diversify production, reduce concentration risk, keep costs competitive. That’s real - but it’s only the starting point. The more durable opportunity is a region that functions as a single operating environment: supply chains that can move across borders smoothly, digital rails that reduce friction for SMEs, and capital markets that can fund long-dated infrastructure and transition projects.

ASEAN’s diversity is a feature, not a bug. Manufacturing strength in Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia; services and finance in Singapore; commodities and domestic demand in Indonesia and the Philippines. Together, that’s a portfolio of complementary growth, provided the plumbing works.

Yet diversification alone doesn’t translate into resilience. ASEAN must also become a demand system, not just a supply system. In a fragmenting world, resilience comes from being able to sell to more places – and increasingly, to your own people. A full inversion away from export-led growth isn’t realistic near-term, but there’s clear room to grow domestic consumption and intra-ASEAN trade and investment from a low base.

The missing pillar

For developing economies, the old playbook – grow by selling to rich-world consumers – now looks less like a strategy and more like a concentration risk. The imbalance is striking: the US remains the world’s buyer of last resort, importing roughly US$4trn a year despite having about 4% of the global population and accounting for about 13% of global imports.

In Southeast Asia, many people are still saving more than shopping. While there is divergence from country to country, HSBC analysis of World Bank data shows the average gross savings rate among the ASEAN 6 economies was equivalent to 32 per cent of economic output in 2024, nearly 6 percentage points above the world average and roughly double the American rate. Vietnam’s own gross savings rate – at around 35% of GDP – sits above the regional average, reflecting a high-investment, export-led model that has powered remarkable growth but also constrains domestic consumption. For many member states, the rate has been rising in recent years.

The rebalancing recipe is well known: higher wages, stronger currencies, credible safety nets, and financial systems that extend consumer credit.

For ASEAN, this isn’t about choosing domestic demand over exports. It’s about building a second engine. When external demand weakens or trade routes become less reliable, stronger domestic demand helps keep factories running, SMEs alive and investment plans on track.

Digital rails – a key advantage

ASEAN is already among the fastest adopters of real-time payments, e-wallets and digital banking. That matters because it turns digital from a ‘start-up story’ into a ‘macro story’: higher SME productivity, deeper financial inclusion, better tax collection, and smoother cross-border trade and tourism spend.

ASEAN’s digital economy is expected to be worth an estimated $2 trillion USD by 2030. 

Its young, digitally native demographics, powered by some of the world’s largest “super apps” - make this a demand story as much as a technology story.

Hence, payments interoperability and digital trade standards are a key advantage. Reducing friction, widening markets for smaller firms, and helping convert rising incomes into formal, financeable economic activity.

Vietnam’s role

Vietnam is well placed – but only if it treats this moment as a mandate to move faster, coordinate better and deliver consistently.

Vietnam’s economic re-acceleration has been striking. GDP growth reached 8.02% in 2025 – the fastest among the ASEAN-6. FDI inflows of USD38.42bn in 2025 tell their own story: global manufacturers are voting with their capital, drawn by Vietnam’s competitive costs, its deepening electronics and ICT supply chain, and its privileged access to major markets via CPTPP and RCEP.

Across the region, the next wave is higher-value, not just lower-cost: electronics and semiconductors, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure powering the AI transition. ASEAN’s data centre supply has surged, and Vietnam’s position at the heart of global electronics supply chains, with semiconductors and ICT hardware comprising over 30% of merchandise exports, gives it a natural entry point into the next phase of digital infrastructure build-out. Done well, this becomes backbone infrastructure for AI workloads, cloud adoption and productivity gains across the economy.

ASEAN has complementary renewable energy strengths: hydro, geothermal, wind and solar, and Vietnam has already demonstrated what rapid renewable deployment can achieve: a boom in solar and wind capacity that transformed the country’s power mix within a decade. The challenge now is grid stability and cross-border connectivity. The ASEAN Power Grid is the mechanism that can turn Vietnam’s renewable surplus into a regional asset. Energy that stays siloed stays expensive; energy that flows across borders becomes a source of competitive advantage for the whole system.

Integration and domestic reform

ASEAN integration has been discussed for decades, yet investors still price countries first and the region second. Over the next five years, domestic reforms will likely dominate outcomes: governance, rule of law, fiscal credibility and regulatory consistency.

But integration is the multiplier. The practical sequence is: get the basics right at home (predictability, speed, transparency); Scale through regional anchors (ASEAN, RCEP, ACFTA 3.0 and bilateral corridors) so firms can operate across borders with less friction.

This includes interoperable payments, streamlined customs, shared standards for digital trade, and cross-border infrastructure that reduces logistics costs. These are the changes that don’t always make headlines – but they change investment committees’ minds.

ASEAN’s next advantages

ASEAN’s resilience story is no longer just about attracting factories; it’s about building a home-grown consumption and demand cycle that lets the region absorb shocks. ASEAN-as-a-system ultimately means competing on reliability and capability, not just cost.

In a world where supply chains are being redrawn and capital is choosing quality over hype, that’s how an inflection point becomes a step-change - and how national growth becomes a network for “ASEAN buys ASEAN.”