State-backed loans and funds support enterprises in investing and developing production. (Photo: AN KHANH)

According to the latest data from the State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV), as of June 18, total outstanding credit across the system reached approximately 16.73 quadrillion VND, up 7.14% compared to the end of 2024 and up 18.71% over the same period in 2024. This is a relatively positive credit growth rate in the context of an economy striving to recover and accelerate.

Notably, compared to the same period in 2024, this is a clear improvement in both the pace and scale of credit, demonstrating consistent policy efforts and growing confidence in economic recovery.

Boosting capital supply capacity

According to SBV, credit is currently flowing strongly into key areas such as production, export, essential consumption, and partially into infrastructure investment and green energy — key drivers of economic development. The resurgence in credit growth is the clearest expression of market confidence.

Economic expert Dinh Trong Thinh stated that this year’s credit growth not only reflects the SBV’s rational monetary policy easing but also indicates strengthened confidence in the economic outlook, thereby stimulating borrowing demand from citizens and enterprises.

This optimistic picture is also reflected across economic regions and sectors such as processing and manufacturing, logistics services, and high-tech agriculture, where commercial banks are actively offering preferential credit packages with interest rates 1–2% lower than average.

Nguyen Phi Lan, Director General of the Forecasting and Statistics – Monetary and Financial Stability Department at SBV, stated that currently 100 credit institutions have credit relationships with the private sector, including approximately 209,000 small and medium-sized enterprises. Additionally, the banking sector is actively implementing many credit programmes, such as credit support for SMEs and the 500 trillion VND loan programme for infrastructure investment. This affirms that credit capital has been widely channelled into all business segments and economic sectors.

According to Nguyen Thanh Tung, Chairman of Vietcombank’s Board of Directors, the total outstanding credit to the economy is estimated to have increased by more than 5.0% compared to the end of 2024 after supporting VCBNeo. The credit structure continues to shift towards quality, efficiency, and sustainability.

“As a key bank in implementing national monetary policies and fulfilling corporate social responsibilities, Vietcombank has launched 22 loan interest rate reduction programmes for businesses and individuals. In addition to financing national key projects, the bank also funds sustainable development sectors and priority areas. Credit to priority sectors has grown well, accounting for nearly 33% of total outstanding loans,” said Nguyen Thanh Tung.

Alongside Vietcombank, VietinBank’s credit growth also performed well in the first half of the year, with an estimated 10% increase over the end of 2024. Notably, some joint-stock commercial banks such as PGBank and ABBank have exhausted their credit growth limits allocated by the SBV and are requesting additional quotas. This clearly demonstrates the recovery and breakthrough of credit as a lever for economic growth.

A high-tech agricultural model in Ha Tinh supported by bank loans.

Maintaining low interest rate

The acceleration of credit cannot be separated from a more borrower-friendly interest rate environment. According to a recent SBV report on interest rate developments, lending rates are being maintained at low levels. Specifically, the average short-term lending rate in VND for priority sectors remains around 3.9% per annum, lower than the SBV’s ceiling rate of 4% per annum.

The average lending rate of domestic commercial banks for both new and existing loans with outstanding balances ranges from 6.6% to 8.9% per year. The average lending rate in USD ranges from 4.1% to 5.0% per year.

Dinh Cong Vang, owner of a melon farm in Khanh Hoa Province, shared that his family operates three greenhouses, totalling over 7,000m². Thanks to a 1.7 billion VND loan from Agribank with a low interest rate, he has invested in a smart management system capable of controlling irrigation, fertilisation, and crop monitoring via mobile phone.

“High-tech agriculture requires systematic investment, which cannot be realised without appropriate funding. In our most recent melon crop, after expenses, we made a profit of over 300 million VND — a result that would be difficult to achieve through traditional farming alone,” Dinh Cong Vang shared.

Moreover, many banks are also actively applying technology to shorten the loan appraisal process, improve customer experience, and reduce operating costs, thereby creating more room for interest rate reductions.

“The lever to boost credit growth is the flexible management of monetary policy and consistent efforts in lowering interest rates and expanding credit limits in a controlled manner. The stability and rationality of interest rates have provided significant financial room for enterprises, especially small and medium-sized ones, enabling them to access low-cost capital to expand production, invest in machinery, purchase raw materials, and restore supply chains,” observed Nguyen Duc Lenh, Deputy Director of SBV Region II.

Thus, with a growth rate of 7.14% as of June, it is entirely feasible for credit growth in 2025 to reach 16% or higher, provided that current policies continue to prove effective. This holds particular significance in the context of the government setting a GDP growth target of 8% or more for 2025.

According to forecasts from the research department of VCB Securities (VCBS Research), credit growth in 2025 could reach around 16%.

MBS Research shares the same view, projecting credit growth in 2025 to lie between 17% and 18%, driven by the robust recovery of the manufacturing sector, domestic consumption, and accelerated disbursement of public investment capital.

In addition, the results of the third quarter of the 2025 business trend survey conducted by SBV among credit institutions and foreign bank branches operating in Viet Nam also indicate that these institutions expect credit growth to improve, and deposit and lending interest rates to remain stable in the third quarter.

Credit institutions also expect system-wide capital mobilisation to increase by an average of 4% in the third quarter of 2025, with outstanding credit projected to grow by 4.7%. Notably, these institutions have revised their expected credit growth for 2025 upward to 16.8%, far surpassing the actual growth rate recorded in 2024.